NFL Week 3 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

There’s a meme-satire account on Facebook with 1.2 million followers titled, “The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But it’s still on the list.” 

I came across that Thursday morning and it made me think about Giants co-owner John Mara and what must be going through his mind these days. 

After the short tenures of coaches Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge, and the disastrous reign of GM Dave Gettleman, you’d think the last thing Mara (and Steve Tisch) would want to do is move on from Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen early in Year 3 of their regime. But you also have to wonder if that’s on the list. 

The Giants are 0-2 for the 10th time in the past 12 seasons. Not only that, they are now finding new ways to lose. In Sunday’s 21-18 defeat at Washington, Big Blue made NFL history by becoming the first team to fall in regulation time after scoring three or more touchdowns and their opponent none. 

We already know from watching the offseason “Hard Knocks” that Mara was not in favor of cutting ties with Saquon Barkley — the Giants’ “most popular player, by far” — particularly if the running back was to end up with the Eagles. Yes, Barkley’s butterfingers cost Philadelphia the win on Monday night, but it must have been uncomfortable for Mara to watch his 248 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in the first two games. 

Schoen eventually might be proven correct for not paying Barkley, and judging by the way the first-round quarterbacks have played so far, maybe it’s not so bad he wasn’t able to trade up for one of them. 

Daboll is just one season and a few weeks removed from Coach of the Year and hasn’t forgotten everything he knew in 2022. But for now, he’s being asked to try to win with a rehabbing Daniel Jones and no Barkley, and it’s not going well. 

Anyway, on to Cleveland … the Browns have a long injury list and a fairly low-powered offense (17.5 ppg so far with Deshaun Watson at quarterback). Malik Nabers had the big drop in Washington but also caught 10 for 127 yards and a touchdown. He figures to only get better. 

I normally love taking teams in Week 3 that are 0-2 overall and 0-2 ATS. There’s desperation, and you often get a bit better number. Per BetMGM’s stats, Daboll covers 61.7 percent as an underdog and the Browns’ Kevin Stefanski just 42.3 percent as a favorite. 

The pick: Giants +6.5. 

Houston Texans (-2) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Battle of 2-0 teams. Minnesota’s upset win over the 49ers leaves us with somewhat of a bargain price on the Texans. Keep an eye on the injury report, but issues with WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could leave Sam Darnold bereft against an excellent team. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints have scored 47 and 44 points in their first two games against the Panthers and Cowboys. I don’t think new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and QB Derek Carr have reinvented football, but this is a lot for the Eagles to try to figure out while traveling on a short week. And their offense is not the same without A.J. Brown. 

Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The most important ankle in the NFL this week belongs to Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Figuring he plays and this will be an old-school, in-the-trenches battle, as Mike Tomlin remains conservative with Justin Fields. Jim Harbaugh stayed east to minimize the effects of back-to-back road games. 

TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5) over Green Bay Packers

Green Bay ran for 261 yards against the Colts to survive a game with Malik Willis at quarterback. He returns to Tennessee to face a stout Titans defense that is allowing about 90 rushing yards per game. The Titans can start to win if Will Levis stops making colossally dumb mistakes. 

Denver Broncos (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Denver is our next 0-2 overall and ATS team to back. Impressed with Baker Mayfield, who figured out how to win a game in Detroit in which the Bucs were outgained 463 yards to 216. But that doesn’t make me want to lay nearly a touchdown here. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1.5) over Chicago Bears

Another 0-2 team in the Colts, and this went low after their loss in Green Bay and Bears’ cover at Houston. Though the Indianapolis run defense needs to be fixed, I think we’ll have the better, more desperate team at a great price. 

Carolina Panthers (+5) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

In for a penny, in for a pound with the 0-2 teams, including the worst team in the NFL. All you had to see was a few Adam Thielen frustration highlights to know things might be a little better with Andy Dalton at quarterback than with Bryce Young. It would help Dalton if Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins aren’t at full strength for Las Vegas. 

Miami Dolphins (+4.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Skylar Thompson may not be any good, but he still has incredible weapons with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. Mike McDaniel also gets a few extra days after Thursday night to recalibrate after losing Tua Tagovailoa. 

Baltimore Ravens (-1) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Normally our 0-2 angle doesn’t include a team as good as the Ravens with their two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson. They lost in Kansas City by the length of Isaiah Likely’s toenail and blew a double-digit lead to the Raiders. CeeDee Lamb’s ankle injury could also be a huge problem for the Cowboys. 

San Francisco 49ers (-7) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Figuring here’s the exception that proves the 0-2 rule. Without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will have to channel Houdini and David Blaine to stay close to the 49ers. 

Detroit Lions (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Just before the season, the Cardinals were 125/1 to win the Super Bowl to the Lions’ 12/1. One Detroit loss (in which it dominated the stat sheet vs. Tampa Bay) and one Arizona blowout of the decimated Rams made this spread closer than it should be. 

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta is coming off a miracle road win in Philadelphia. Now having to face the Chiefs on a short week is not an ideal setup, but Kirk Cousins knows how to use a decent array of runners and receivers, and it might take a while for Patrick Mahomes to adjust to life without Isiah Pacheco. 

Monday

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

Back to the 0-2 brigade with Jacksonville. Suspect there’s more there with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne than we’ve seen so far, and Gabe Davis will be back in the Orchard Park spotlight. Bills are rested and mostly healthy but are down to their third-string middle linebacker. 

Betting on the NFL?

Washington Commanders (+7.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati’s the final 0-2 team on the board this week. This is definitely a must-win for the Bengals, but that can be achieved by a margin less than this spread. If Tee Higgins is out, that offense is not quite as stacked as it used to be. And if Jaylen Daniels can turn some of these field goals into touchdowns, this will be a competitive game. 

Best bets Ravens, Colts, Commanders 
Lock of the week: Ravens (Locks 0-2 in 2024)
Last week: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Jets.