Notre Dame vs. Army prediction: College football picks, odds, bets

One hundred years ago, Notre Dame edged out Army, 13-7, at the Polo Grounds.

Grantland Rice, working for the New York Herald Tribune at the time, turned a consequential Irish victory into the most famous lede in sportswriting history.

Rice wrote, “Outlined against a blue-gray October sky the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore they are known as famine, pestilence, destruction and death. These are only aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Miller, Crowley, and Layden.”

Those Notre Dame running backs would forever be known as the “Four Horsemen,” and the Irish would go on to a perfect 10-0 season, complete with a victory in the Rose Bowl and Knute Rockne’s first national championship.

Given the lead-up to this game, if Army were to pull the upset, their quarterback, Bryson Daily, could end up being a folk hero on the level of those Irish running backs.

To put it lightly, this is Army’s biggest game against the Irish in 66 years.

The game played between the Irish and Cadets in 1958 was a top-five showdown in South Bend. Army won, 14-2, and finished the season 8-0-1 and third in both major polls.

Undefeated and ranked 19th in the CFP rankings, Army is back on the college football map.

Awaiting them is an Irish team that has been playing at an elite level for two months.

Notre Dame has real national title aspirations and a roster to make noise deep into January.

The Irish have won eight straight and decimated their last five opponents by 33 points per game. That included a dismantling of Navy at MetLife Stadium, 51-14.

But that blowout win over a service academy was presented to the Irish on a silver platter.

Navy turned the ball over six times, which was nearly half of the Midshipmen’s giveaways for the entire season. Army is incredibly buttoned up in this regard.

With Daily piloting the offense, the Cadets have just three giveaways this fall (second).

Speaking of Daily and the Army offense, the Cadets have hit the rushing trifecta — ranking first in rushing success rate, line yards and offensive stuff rate.

As a unit, they never get behind the sticks, which explains why Army is first in Havoc avoidance.

And if they need an extra down to move the sticks, they’re ruthlessly efficient on fourth down (84.2 percent, second). This translates to long drives, which effectively shrinks games down.

This was on display against North Texas two weeks ago. The Mean Green entered with a top-10 offense (points per game, total offense).

Army’s “keep-away” strategy provided UNT with just six drives the entire game.

The result? A 14-3 Army victory and another brilliant rushing performance from the Cadets’ triple option captain (Daily ran 36 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns).

On the injury front, defensive tackle Howard Cross (ankle) remains questionable for Notre Dame.

Without Cross, Virginia ran it effectively at times last week, finishing with 128 yards on the ground.

Betting on College Football?

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame is vulnerable when its running game isn’t popping big plays. Army can be bullied in the box, but it ranks in the top 10 in limiting rushing explosives.

Northern Illinois slowed the ND running game in a September upset (123 yards), forcing ND and Riley Leonard into obvious third-down passing situations.

The Irish are 86th in third-down conversion rate, and if the Cadets get off the field, they’ll bleed the clock dry.

Army had the benefit of a bye week, so I expect OC Cody Worley to pull out all the stops in the trick play and aggressive play-calling department.

Recommendation: Army moneyline +500 (FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.