Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: College football odds, picks, bets Week 9

Notre Dame and Navy have played 94 times since 1927.

This rivalry has always had juice, but the stakes haven’t been this high since 1978 when the undefeated Midshipmen traveled to Cleveland to take on the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish.

This time, both programs have a legitimate chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff, but it will have to start with a win at MetLife Stadium on Saturday.

This isn’t your granddaddy’s Navy offense.

The Mids average more than 44 points per game and have cracked the code when it comes to generating big plays.

Through just six games, Navy already has burned defenses for plays of 40 yards or more on 13 occasions.

There are two explanations for this offensive glow-up. The first is quarterback play.

Blake Horvath is piloting the offense to perfection, ranking third in QBR while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt (12.3).

The second element that has contributed to Navy’s explosiveness has been the addition of Drew Cronic to the coaching staff.

The former head coach at Mercer has revamped Navy’s offense by introducing Wing T elements to the traditional triple option.

The result has been players running wild in the second and third levels of opposing defenses.

If you cherry-pick portions of their film, Navy’s passing attack has all the modern bells and whistles that we’ve come to expect from a Chip Kelly or Steve Sarkisian offense.

You’ll find a heavy dose of shotgun looks, run-pass options, screen passes to nearly every position on the field, naked bootlegs and a complex route tree for runners out of the backfield.

Cronic’s philosophy centers around the idea of pre-snap motion, misdirection and sleight of hand in order to force defenses to defend the width of the field.

The end result is that defenses are playing slower. Paralysis by analysis, as coaches like to say.

Notre Dame is going to have to cram for this football test and without a bye week to do it, Navy likely will continue to spark big plays through the air and on the ground.

If you dig into Notre Dame’s defensive profile, you will find the Irish struggle with a few run concepts that reside squarely in Navy’s wheelhouse.

The Mids excel when running powers and counters and Notre Dame is barely inside the top 100 in defending them.

And if the Irish commit more to stopping the run by loading the box, that’s when Eli Heidenreich and Navy’s other pass-catchers will do damage.

Before last week, Heidenreich had broken a long play of at least 39 yards in every game this season.

The former high school wide receiver has become a Swiss Army Knife for the Midshipmen, and he should be able to pop at least one against the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

The reason for this spread being as generous as it is starts and ends with scheduling.

Navy feasted on teams such as Bucknell, Temple and UAB in the early going before acing its first-semester exam against Memphis, a 56-44 shootout win.

Betting on College Football?

The perception is that Notre Dame’s path has been much more difficult having played Texas A&M and Louisville.

But in reality, these two teams have a nearly identical schedule strength — Notre Dame 70th, Navy 71st, per College Football Network.

Northern Illinois shrunk the game down and used its rushing attack to upset Notre Dame in South Bend.

Despite its explosiveness, Navy still runs it 77.54 percent of the time, the second-highest run rate in America.

The stage is set and the formula is there for Navy to torpedo Notre Dame’s season.

Recommendation: Navy +13.5 (+105, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.