Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction: Week 1 college football odds, picks

Two top-25 teams will square off on Saturday night when No. 7 Notre Dame heads to College Station to face No. 20 Texas A&M.

This matchup is loaded with intriguing storylines, from former coordinators returning to their old stomping grounds to a head coach going up against his former player.

While it’s always good to utilize power ratings as part of our analysis, there are some intangibles we simply can’t ignore that could end up being the difference in cashing a winning ticket.

Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M odds

Notre Dame preview

The decision to hire Marcus Freeman looks very sound, as Notre Dame’s third-year head coach improved to 10-3 last season after going 9-4 in his first year.

In recent years, there have been questions about whether the Irish could compete with some of the powerhouses in college football from a recruiting perspective while still maintaining its stringent academic requirements.

However, elite coaching and the ability to put together a game plan can help level the playing field.

According to 247Sports, Notre Dame’s roster ranks 10th in the recruiting site’s Talent Composite Index.

What’s surprising is the Fighting Irish have lacked some continuity at quarterback, which is easily the most critical position on the field.

They have had a different starting quarterback in each of their last four seasons, and that trend will continue this year with senior Riley Leonard transferring from Duke.

Leonard struggled through an ankle injury last season, which limited him to seven games.

His numbers certainly took a hit as he completed 95 of 165 passes (57.6%) for 1,102 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

He’ll hope to return to his 2022 form when he went 231 for 363 (63.6%) with 2,974 yards, 20 touchdowns and just six picks.

Texas A&M preview

Mike Elko takes over following the firing of Jimbo Fisher after another underwhelming season at A&M. Elko worked under Fisher as the Aggies’ defensive coordinator from 2018 to 2021.

His familiarity with College Station makes his transition as head coach somewhat seamless. Elko could have more success getting the best out of his players than Fisher.

While Fisher certainly had his critics, one thing you can’t say is that he wasn’t a good recruiter. The Aggies consistently had one of the best recruiting classes and this season is no different.

Texas A&M ranks seventh in 247Sports’ Talent Composite Index while boasting seven five-star players compared to just one for Notre Dame.

This team is pretty balanced as it returns 18 starters, with nine on offense and nine on defense. Quarterback Conner Weigman started four games last year before a broken left foot bone ended his season.

In those four games, A&M went 3-1 with Weigman completing 82 of 119 (68.9%) passes for 979 yards while tossing eight touchdowns and two interceptions.

The Heisman hopeful is a talented quarterback who football insiders believe has a chance to play on Sundays. 

Betting on College Football?

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M pick

I’ve almost had to set aside my power ratings for this matchup because of a set of unique circumstances that come into play.

For example, Notre Dame’s starting left tackle, Charles Jagusah, will miss the entire year after suffering a torn pectoral muscle in preseason. Notre Dame’s offensive line is extremely young and inexperienced, with just six starts among the group.

There’s also the angle of Leonard being on the opposite sideline against Elko, whom he played for while at Duke.

You’d have to think that if anyone can put together a game plan to stymie Leonard it would be his former head coach who has a defensive background.

Lastly, according to Action Labs, in games that involve two ranked teams, favorites are an overwhelming 463-375-17 (55.3%) for 60.78 units.

All of that has me going with the Aggies against the spread as my best bet.

Pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (-120, FanDuel)