Oklahoma State vs. BYU prediction: CFB Week 8 odds, picks, best bets Friday

Before the season, Oklahoma State had a win-total projection of 8.5 and ranked third in odds to win the Big 12.

BYU, on the other hand, had a win total of 4.5 and ranked last in Big 12 odds.

After seven weeks, the script has flipped. The Cougars have stormed to a 6-0 start, while the Cowboys have limped to 3-3.

BYU is a 9.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma State on Friday night.

Let’s dive into the matchup and make a prediction.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU odds

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Despite having Ollie Gordon, the reigning Doak Walker award winner, the Oklahoma State rushing offense has been dreadful this season.

The Cowboys rank 131st in rushing success rate, and Gordon’s average has dropped from 6.1 yards per carry last year to 3.8 this year. The problems are twofold. 

First, the Cowboys’ offensive line has dramatically underperformed. Despite returning plenty of crucial experience, the Pokes rank 100th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades.

Secondly, the Cowboys have struggled to find any semblance of a threatening downfield passing game, which has allowed opponents to load the box without fear of being beaten over the top.

Quarterback Alan Bowman, playing his seventh year of college football, has struggled mightily. During the Cowboys’ current three-game losing streak, he has completed just 50% of his passes and thrown six interceptions.

According to Action Network college football insider Brett McMurphy, Oklahoma State is expected to go with redshirt sophomore Garret Rangel or redshirt freshman Zane Flores on Friday instead of Bowman.

Rangel has completed just 51% of his passes and thrown seven touchdowns to six interceptions over 12 games in three seasons. Flores has yet to make an appearance at the college level. Can we expect either to succeed on the road against a BYU defense ranked 13th in success rate allowed via the pass?

When BYU has the ball

Former JUCO quarterback Jake Retzlaff has had an incredible season at BYU, throwing 14 touchdowns to five interceptions during the team’s 6-0 start.

He’s led the Cougars to a top-50 passing attack by EPA/pass and yards per dropback.

Retzlaff should thrive in this game against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks sub-90th in PFF’s pass-rush and coverage grades.

The Cougars’ run game has lagged behind its pass game this year, but injuries to LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati have been the primary culprit.

Both players returned against Arizona, combining for 114 yards on 20 carries. The duo should be able to continue that success against an Oklahoma State defense allowing an eye-popping 6.4 yards per carry, the sixth-most in the country.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU pick

The situational aspect of this game would lead me to consider Oklahoma State.

Head coach Mike Gundy has gone 31-17 straight-up and 26-19-3 against the spread (58%) with 10-plus days to prepare, according to Action Network.

However, backing two inexperienced quarterbacks to have success on the road against a stout BYU pass defense is a tough ask.

Instead, I’ll dip into the player prop market and back Ropati to finish with 40-plus rushing yards.

Betting on College Football?

Ropati has dealt with horrible injury luck during his time at BYU, but he has eclipsed 40 rushing yards in all four career games in which he has received at least 15 snaps, and he averages an impressive 5.1 yards per carry for his career.

Being 9.5-point favorites should allow the Cougars to get their run game going, and I’m backing Ropati to find success against the horrendous Cowboys run defense.

Best bet: Hinckley Ropati 40+ rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.