Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State, BYU vs. Baylor picks: CFB predictions, odds

Baylor shouldn’t have lost last week to Colorado. Up 31-24 with under four minutes left, the Bears missed a game-sealing 45-yard field goal.

Shedeur Sanders then completed a 43-yard Hail Mary touchdown to tie the game as time expired. 

After Colorado scored first in overtime, Dominic Richardson fumbled on the goal line in Baylor’s response. 

Conversely, BYU shouldn’t have won last week against Kansas State.

The Cougars were outgained 416 total yards to 241, but they won thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns and two short-field touchdown drives off interceptions. 

Because of those flukey results, the Bears are undervalued at home against BYU on Saturday. 

Baylor’s offense has improved after switching from DeQuann Finn to Sawyer Robertson, who has completed 64 percent of his passes for 9.3 YPA, three touchdowns and no picks over the past two weeks.

Robertson has helped open up the ground game, as the Bears rushed for 396 yards across his two starts. 

BYU’s passing offense has shined behind Jake Retzlaff, but the Cougars can’t run the ball and will be without top back LJ Martin on Saturday. 

Baylor’s experienced defense improved once Dave Aranda started calling plays.

The Bears rank 25th in EPA per play allowed and fifth in success rate allowed, including fourth in pass success rate allowed.

That doesn’t bode well for Retzlaff’s one-dimensional attack. 

The pick: Baylor -3.

Oklahoma State (+5) over KANSAS STATE

I’m low on Oklahoma State this season primarily because the Cowboys can’t establish the run attack despite rostering Ollie Gordon II and an experienced line. 

When the Cowboys can’t run, they must lean on the mercurial Alan Bowman, who struggles with turnovers and working through progressions. 

But Bowman hasn’t been awful this year, with the Pokes ranking in the top 40 in pass success rate and EPA per Dropback.

And his deficiencies might not matter against a lifeless Kansas State secondary that ranks 74th in pass success rate allowed and has been shredded by chunk plays. 

Conversely, Oklahoma State’s 3-3-5 defense is vulnerable to chunk passing plays, ranking 130th in explosiveness allowed.

But Kansas State’s rush-heavy offense isn’t built to air it out. 

The Wildcats’ special teams unit is also concerning, ranking 125th in average net field position (-7.3). 

PENN STATE (-18) over Illinois

Illinois is overvalued after its 4-0 start.

The Illini were fortunate to win games against Kansas and Nebraska, needing a plus-four turnover margin to pull out both victories. 

If the Illini were 2-2, they likely would be catching well over 20 points on the road at Penn State. 

New Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a wizard.

Betting on College Football?

He has helped develop Drew Allar into an elite quarterback and paired him with a dominant two-headed tailback monster in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. 

The Lions should pour it on against a perfectly average defense because that’s what James Franklin does.

Penn State is 35-21-2 against the spread as a double-digit favorite under the longtime head coach. 

Last week: 3-0. Texas Tech (W), Rutgers (W), Utah (W)
2024 season: 6-6.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.