Peter Pan: Odds and analysis for Belmont Stakes prep

The Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan will be run at the two-turn distance of 1 1/8 miles on Saturday at Aqueduct. For 3-year-olds only, the Peter Pan serves as the local prep race for the June 8 Belmont Stakes. Because Belmont Park is being renovated, the third leg of the Triple Crown will take place at Saratoga at the shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles.

The field of eight 3-year-olds includes seven who were on the Kentucky Derby trail at some point. Five of them earned qualifying points, but only Deterministic was a Derby prep winner.

Last year Arcangelo won the Peter Pan and then went on to victory in the Belmont. In 2014 Tonalist completed the Peter Pan-Belmont Stakes double for Christophe Clement. Clement is joined in this year’s field by Todd Pletcher, Shug McGaughey and Chad Brown as trainers who have previous wins in the Peter Pan.

Here is the analysis for the Peter Pan with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 6 of 11 with post time set for 3:08 p.m. EDT.

1. Protective, 8-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 0-1-1 – $97,920. Protective is still a maiden after three starts, a second-place debut at Saratoga, a third going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs in March and then a third in the Wood Memorial (G2). In the Wood, Protective had a troubled start that forced him back to last in the field of 11 and then he rallied to finish third. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Peter Pan four times, most recently with Promise Keeper in 2021. Use underneath.

2. Unique Insight, 10-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Eric Cancel – 5: 2-0-0 – $93,685. Unique Insight broke his maiden in his fourth race, which was at Aqueduct going two turns while pressing the pace. Last month, he faced winners for the first time and led every step of the way against a field of five. Those recent wins came when he raced with Lasix. Trainer Chad Brown won the Peter Pan in 2017 and 2020. Toss.

3. The Wine Steward, 5-2. Vino Rosso – Michael Maker / Luis Saez – 5: 3-2-0 – $427,260. The Wine Steward never finished worse than second in five career starts. The New York-bred won his first three races, including an open-company stakes race at Ellis Park and a state-bred stakes at Saratoga. His most recent races were on the Derby trail with seconds in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the Lexington (G3). Win contender.

4. Lonesome Boy, 15-1. Nationhood – Hugo Padilla / Adam Bowman – 11: 3-2-2 – $176,444. Lonesome Boy is a Washington-bred who is based at Parx Racing. He started his career at Parx and then ran eighth in a futurity at Emerald Downs. He broke his maiden in his sixth start for a $40,000 tag at Parx by more than 12 lengths. As a 3-year-old he won again in a starter allowance at Aqueduct. After a stakes victory at Parx, Lonesome Boy pressed the pace in the Wood Memorial and finished fourth at 80-1. He also is entered in the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday. Toss.

5. Tuscan Gold, 3-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 3: 1-0-1 – $147,100. Tuscan Gold is the second Chad Brown runner in this field, and he also is under consideration for the Preakness. After a fourth-place finish in his debut at Aqueduct in November at 10-1, he made his first start as a 3-year-old and broke his maiden with Lasix for the first time. Tuscan Gold went to the Derby trail and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Top choice in the Peter Pan.

6. Antiquarian, 6-1. Preservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 3: 1-1-0 – $63,000. Antiquarian broke his maiden at Fair Grounds in his second start. He moved to the Kentucky Derby trail and finished sixth in the Louisiana Derby after breaking through the gate before the start. Antiquarian is the second runner in the Peter Pan for Pletcher. Use underneath.

7. Deterministic, 4-1. Liam’s Map – Christophe Clement / Joel Rosario– 3: 2-0-0 – $237,750. Deterministic was an impressive maiden winner at Saratoga and then got a Derby trail victory in the one-mile Gotham (G3). That win sent Deterministic to the Wood Memorial (G2) as the odds-on favorite. Deterministic did very little running that day, and trainer Christophe Clement could not find anything wrong with him. If the horse who won his first two starts impressively returns in the Peter Pan, he becomes a serious threat. Win contender.

8. Native Land, 8-1. Mastery – Riley Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 2-1-1 – $170,848. Native Land won his last two starts, starting with a maiden victory at Oaklawn Park by more than six lengths using a deep closing move going nine furlongs. Last month at Keeneland he won an allowance by a neck against a field of six on a sloppy and sealed track. Toss.

Summary: The Peter Pan drew an evenly matched field of 3-year-olds that includes two horses who are possible to run in a different race. Lonesome Boy is entered in the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park, and Tuscan Gold is being considered for the Preakness on May 18.

If Tuscan Gold runs in the Peter Pan, his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby makes him one of the top win contenders. It is hard to know what to expect from Deterministic. He had impressive wins in his first two starts, including the Gotham, but his poor performance in the Wood Memorial is hard to explain by handicappers and his trainer Christophe Clement. The Wine Steward was a picture of consistency in five career starts and got a freshening before his second in the Lexington (G3).

After three improving starts, Tuscan Gold has the look of a 3-year-old who has victories ahead of him. He was overshadowed in the Chad Brown barn by his stablemate Sierra Leone. If Tuscan Gold runs on Saturday at Aqueduct, he will be the top choice.