PFF Grades and Data: Everything you need to know for every NFL Week 16 game

• Bo Nix continues to steadily improve against the blitz: In his first seven games, Nix ranked 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in passer rating vs. the blitz (70.2), and his 5.4 yards per attempt ranked 25th. Over his last seven games facing the blitz, Nix has posted a 113.5 passer rating (ninth-best) and 8.4 yards per attempt (eighth). This growth echoes his final season at Oregon, where he led all FBS passers with 21 touchdown passes when blitzed.

• A matchup worth watching: Terry McLaurin leads all players in left outside wide receiver snaps, logging 559 this season. Quinyon Mitchell ranks second among defenders in right outside cornerback snaps, with 775. This sets up a compelling matchup when the Eagles play man coverage. McLaurin’s 70% catch rate against man coverage ranks fifth among wide receivers, and his five receiving touchdowns are tied for the third-most.

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

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Ahead of NFL Week 16, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.

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DEN@LAC | HOU@KC | PIT@BAL | CLE@CIN | PHI@WAS | DET@CHI ARI@CAR
NYG@ATL | LAR@NYJ | TEN@IND | MIN@SEA | NE@BUF
JAX@LV | SF@MIA | TB@DAL | NO@GB

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Bo Nix continues to steadily improve against the blitz as his rookie season progresses. In his first seven games, Nix ranked 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in passer rating vs. the blitz (70.2), and his 5.4 yards per attempt ranked 25th. Over his last seven games facing the blitz, Nix has posted a 113.5 passer rating (ninth-best) and 8.4 yards per attempt (eighth). This growth echoes his final season at Oregon, where he led all FBS passers with 21 touchdown passes when blitzed.

On the other side, Vance Joseph’s blitz-heavy approach toward Justin Herbert is worth noting. In their Week 6 matchup, Joseph blitzed on 63% of Herbert’s dropbacks — Denver’s second-highest rate this season. Opting for a standard pass rush against Herbert comes with risk; since the start of the 2023 season, Herbert is PFF’s highest-graded passer when defenses choose not to blitz.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

 The Chiefs have struggled mightily to find stability at the left tackle position this season. Four different players have logged 60 or more snaps anchoring the left side of the offensive line. Rookie Kingsley Suamataia was benched after Week 2, Wanya Morris has struggled throughout the season, D.J. Humphries was injured in his first game, and Joe Thuney’s All-Pro play at left guard hasn’t translated well to left tackle. As a result, the group has allowed the second-highest pressure rate (11%) and the second-most pressures (62) in the NFL this year.

Who will start this week against the elite edge-rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter remains uncertain. Anderson has lined up over the left tackle on more than half of his snaps this season, while Hunter has done so on 36% of his. Both rank in the top 10 among edge defenders in pass-rush win rate and sacks in 2024 — the only team in the NFL with two players who can make that claim.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers employ play action at a top-five rate (30%), but their approach is conservative, yielding limited success. Russell Wilson‘s average depth of target on play-action plays is just 4.7 yards — the lowest among 32 qualifying quarterbacks — and the Steelers‘ 5.8 average yards per play ranks 29th in the league.

On the other hand, Baltimore’s defense has been vulnerable to big plays off play action. They have allowed nine touchdown passes, tied for the third-most in the NFL, and have a passer rating of 112.7, the sixth-highest in the league.

Pittsburgh’s defense will likely focus on contain-rushing Lamar Jackson to stifle the Ravens‘ offense. The Steelers have excelled at disrupting opposing quarterbacks this season, not just through pressures and sacks but also by leading the league with 19 batted passes.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

 Jerome Ford struggled with drop issues during his rookie season, with his nine drops leading all running backs. He has significantly improved as a receiver this year, with just one drop on 37 targets. Ford’s improved reliability could be a key factor in the Browns’ game plan this week, especially against a Bengals defense allowing a 91% completion rate to running backs — tied for the third-highest in the league. Additionally, since Logan Wilson‘s absence from the lineup, Cincinnati has given up 245 receiving yards to running backs since Week 12, the most in the NFL.

Another player demonstrating improved hands this season is Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. He currently has a 3.6% drop rate on catchable passes, the lowest of his career for a single season.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

 Terry McLaurin leads all players in left outside wide receiver snaps, logging 559 this season. Quinyon Mitchell ranks second among defenders in right outside cornerback snaps, with 775. This sets up a compelling matchup when the Eagles play man coverage. McLaurin’s 70% catch rate against man coverage ranks fifth among wide receivers, and his five receiving touchdowns are tied for the third-most. Meanwhile, Mitchell is PFF’s fourth-highest-graded cornerback in man coverage at 76.4 and has yet to surrender a touchdown in those situations this season.

Saquon Barkley torched the Commanders for 146 rushing yards in Week 11, gaining 96 yards before contact — his second-highest total of the season. Barkley leads all running backs this year by averaging 2.6 yards before contact per attempt. The Commanders’ defense has struggled significantly in this area, allowing 2.0 yards before contact per attempt on run plays, which is the worst mark in the league.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

 Injuries appear to have caught up to the Lions’ coverage unit over the past two weeks. Through Week 13, Detroit allowed a league-low 74.9 passer rating in coverage. However, in the last two games, that number has jumped to 118.4, the third-worst mark over that span.

Darnell Wright has shown significant improvement in his second season. His 4.3% pressure rate allowed ranks 13th-lowest among 38 right tackles with at least 150 pass-blocking snaps. This is a major step forward compared to his rookie year when his 8.7% pressure rate ranked 33rd out of 42 right tackles meeting the same snap minimum.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

 The extension for Arizona safety Budda Baker is well deserved, as the Cardinals’ veteran leader continues to perform at a high level in his eighth season. Baker leads all safeties in defensive stops this year, tallying 50 — an impressive number considering Grant Delpit is the next closest at 35.

Baker and the Cardinals’ defense will need to keep a close eye on rookie UDFA Jalen Coker, who posted a career-high 110 receiving yards last week. The last undrafted rookie wide receiver to surpass the 100-yard mark in a game was Brandon Powell in Week 17 of the 2018 season for the Detroit Lions.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

 Amid the Giants’ disappointing 2024 season, Brian Burns’ performance has been a bright spot. The talented edge rusher has posted a career-high 14% pass-rush win rate and a personal best of 24 run stops this season.

Meanwhile, the Michael Penix Jr. era officially kicks off for Atlanta, with the Falcons firmly in the playoff hunt. In his final season at Washington, Penix Jr. led all FBS quarterbacks with 128 deep pass attempts (20 or more yards downfield). Expect the rookie to showcase his arm talent in his starting debut, especially against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 128.6 passer rating on deep throws.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

 When the Rams need a short-yardage conversion, it’s no secret who gets the ball. On downs with two yards or fewer to go, Kyren Williams leads the NFL with 51 carries and 37 conversions. Since 2023, his 78% conversion rate on short-yardage rush attempts ranks fifth-best among all players, trailing only quarterbacks. The Jets will be hoping for a change in the Rams’ approach, as they allow just a 43% conversion rate on short-yardage pass plays, the lowest in the league, compared to a 75% conversion rate on run plays, the fourth-highest.

In their Week 15 victory over the Jaguars, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams delivered a vintage performance, combining for 198 yards — their first time topping 150 yards since Week 5 of 2021. Much of their success came on downfield passes, with Adams catching four of seven targets thrown 10 or more yards downfield for 149 yards and a touchdown. They could be in for another big game against a Rams defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers on downfield targets, the most in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

 T’Vondre Sweat’s rookie season now includes a highlight-reel fumble return against the Bengals last week, as his overall performance has picked up in recent weeks. Since Week 11, Sweat has recorded 15 total pressures, tied for 11th among interior defensive linemen. This marks a significant improvement, considering he had just seven pressures from Weeks 1-10, underscoring his growing impact on the Titans defense over the past five games.

Despite having talent at running back with Jonathan Taylor and at quarterback with Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis has struggled in short-yardage situations on run plays. The Colts have converted a touchdown or first down on just 59% of their run plays with two yards or fewer to go, tying for the fifth-worst rate in 2024. Tennessee, on the other hand, boasts the stingiest defense in these scenarios, allowing a league-best 46% conversion rate.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

 Geno Smith thrives when the Seahawks shift to a no-huddle offense. He ranks second among qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade at 88.7 and has accumulated 1,038 passing yards on no-huddle dropbacks. The Vikings’ pass defense is strong overall, allowing a 35% success rate, the fifth-best mark in the league. However, that success rate rises to 42% when defending no-huddle dropbacks, ranking 18th.

On the other side, the Vikings’ pass-catchers have excelled on crossing routes, recording 45 receptions for 674 yards and nine touchdowns — all ranking first or second in the NFL. Seven different Vikings have scored a touchdown on a crossing route, more than any other team. The Seahawks’ defenders have faced the second-most targets on crossing routes (59) but have defended them effectively, allowing 9.0 yards per target, the eighth-best mark in the league.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

 The Bills‘ offense has scored a touchdown on an NFL-leading 37% of drives, many of which have come in the red zone, where Buffalo can attack defenses in multiple ways. Josh Allen has accounted for 28 red-zone touchdowns (20 passing and 8 rushing), trailing only Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks. James Cook has also been productive, tying for fifth among running backs with 11 red-zone touchdowns (10 rushing and 1 receiving). The Patriots’ defense must improve in the red zone, having surrendered 32 red-zone touchdowns, tied for the third-most in the league.

Drake Maye has quickly impressed through his improvisational skills, excelling as both a scrambler and a passer. On dropbacks classified as “scramble drill,” he leads all qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade (95.2). The Bills’ defense has struggled in these situations, allowing a league-high six passing touchdowns on scramble drill plays.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

 Brian Thomas has quickly established himself as one of the NFL’s premier vertical threats, leading all pass-catchers in vertical route receiving yards with 352, including 122 yards after the catch — the second-most in the league. The Raiders’ defense, however, has been difficult to exploit in this area, allowing just 275 receiving yards on vertical routes, the second-fewest behind the Eagles.

Jakobi Meyers has made a strong case for having the best hands in the league as the only pass-catcher to reach 100 targets without a single drop. His 67% contested catch rate is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL. He faces a tough challenge against a Jaguars cornerback group that has forced 27 incompletions, ranking sixth among teams.

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

 Jonnu Smith has emerged as a key playmaker for the Dolphins, particularly in the middle of the field. On targets inside the numbers, he leads all tight ends in receiving yards at 544 and ranks second, behind George Kittle, in receptions of 15 or more yards with 10. However, he’ll face a tough challenge against 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, whose 91.9 PFF coverage grade on targets inside the numbers is the second-best among qualified defenders.

Brock Purdy has faced unblocked pressure on 56 dropbacks this season, trailing only C.J. Stroud in that category. Despite the pressure, Purdy has excelled at getting the ball out quickly, completing 45 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns in these situations. He’ll face another test against a Dolphins defense that generates unblocked pressure at a 12% rate, the second-highest in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

 Few have started games stronger than Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers this season. No team has scored more offensive points on their opening drives (42) or found the end zone at a higher rate (50%) than Tampa Bay in 2024. Only the Cardinals (6.8) average more yards per play on first drives than the Buccaneers (6.6). Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has struggled early, allowing the most yards per play (6.6) and ranking in the bottom three for touchdown rate and offensive points allowed on opponents’ opening drives.

Expect plenty of screen passes in this matchup. The Buccaneers have used screens on 17% of their plays this season, the third-highest rate in the league. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have adjusted their approach in recent weeks. They ranked 26th in screen rate from Weeks 1-9 while Dak Prescott was healthy but jumped to 11th since Cooper Rush took over in Week 10. Both teams rank in the top eight in average yards per play on screen passes this season.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

 Josh Jacobs is setting the tone for the Packers offense on early downs, as he has racked up 246 carries for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns on first and second down — all of which rank in the top three in the NFL. The Saints could struggle to contain him unless they tighten up a run defense that is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on first and second down, the second-worst mark in the league.

Opposing defensive coordinators have relentlessly tested Spencer Rattler with aggressive pass-rush schemes. Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Rattler has faced a blitz on 38% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate, and his 53.7 passing grade against the blitz ranks sixth-lowest. The Packers’ blitz-heavy approach could exploit this weakness, as they lead the NFL with a 53% pressure rate when blitzing.