Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 4 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends, and stats

Sean Manaea was brilliant Tuesday night allowing just 3 hits and 1 run over 7 innings and the Mets scored 7 runs on 9 hits to knock off the Phillies 7-2 and in the process take a 2 games to 1 lead in this Best of 5 National League Division series.

The victory was Manaea’s 1^st in his postseason career. He had issues prior to this breakout performance going 0-3 with a whopping 10.66 ERA. The offense came from all corners of the lineup led by bombs from Pete Alonso (his 3^rd in four games) and Jesse Winker (his 1^st in this postseason).

The Mets can clinch the series and advance to the National League Championship series with a win Wednesday at Citi Field. Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Mets while Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Philadelphia.

Lets dive into the matchup.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first-pitch, projected pitching matchup, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Phillies @ Mets – Game 4

● Date: Wednesday, October 9, 2024
● Time: 5:08 PM ET
● Site: Citi Field
● City: Flushing, NY
● TV/Streaming: FS1

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Game odds for Phillies @ Mets

The latest odds as of Tuesday night:

● Moneyline: New York Mets (-105), Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
● Spread: Mets +1.5 (-185), Phillies -1.5 (+150)
● Total: 7.5

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Probable starting pitchers for Philadelphia @ New York

● Wednesday’s pitching matchup (October 9): Ranger Suarez vs. Jose Quintana

○ Mets: Quintana has made 5 postseason starts without recording a decision including 6 innings of 4-hit shutout ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card round against Milwaukee.

○ Phillies: Suarez has been outstanding in the past few postseasons. In 9 appearances including 7 starts (33.1 innings), the Phillies’ All-Star is 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA.

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Phillies @ Mets

• 7 of the Phillies’ last 9 games with the Mets have gone OVER the Total.
• The Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against divisional opponents.
• JT Realmuto is still searching for his 1^st hit of this series (0-9).
• Alec Bohm is hitting .100 (1-10) in this series.
• Pete Alonso has just 4 hits in the postseason, but 3 of the 4 have sailed over the fence.
  

  Playoff History for Philadelphia @ New York

· Mets: Own a playoff record of 56-42 all-time. They have reached the World Series 5 times in their franchise history winning in 1969 and 1986.

· Phillies: Philadelphia has made the playoffs now 17 times with an overall postseason record of 69-67. They have claimed the National League pennant 8 times. They won the World Series in 1980 against the Kansas City Royals and in 2008 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

In the last 10 years, the Phillies have made the playoffs 3 times and won 5 series in those 3 trips to the postseason.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Wednesday’s NLDS Game 4 at Citi Field between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday’s Philadelphia @ New York Game 4:

· Moneyline: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Phillies on the Moneyline

· Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Phillies on the Run Line

· Total Runs: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the OVER of 7.5 Total Runs

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!

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· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)