Prisco’s Week 3 NFL picks: Vikings top Texans to remain unbeaten, Chargers upend Steelers

It was a solid Week 2 for me — at least against the spread.

You would think I’d be better picking the games straight up, but that wasn’t the case last week. I went 7-9 straight up for a 17-15 overall record and I was 9-6-1 ATS for a 17-12-3 record. I will make my usual claim of the right pick-wrong-result gripe with the Giants. If they have a kicker, they beat the Commanders and I have another victory.

Ah, heck with it. On to this week. 

There are four teams playing consecutive road games this week, which is always a challenge. Keep that in mind when picking your games.

Some of the supposed power teams, like the 49ers, Ravens and Cowboys, have to get back on track this week. One of them will be a winner — unless there is a tie — since the Ravens play at Dallas against the Cowboys in one of the marquee games.

The Ravens are 0-2 and Dallas is 1-1. The loser has major issues.

Desperation can be key in the NFL. See Atlanta Monday night as they beat the Eagles on the road as a big dog. The Ravens appear to be the more desperate team against the Cowboys since they are without a victory. So what’s the pick? Read on for all of them.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

This is a game featuring two 1-1 teams with the Jets playing at home for the first time this season. The Jets offense showed some life in the second half last week against the Titans. That could carry over against a Pats defense that gave up a lot of big plays last week. I also look for a better showing by the Jets defense. Jets take it, but the Pats hang around.

Pick: Jets 20, Pats 16

Bonus: Emory Hunt is also leaning Under 38.5 in this game, and he’s on an 18-5 run on picks in Patriots games. Check out which side he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.  

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Giants are playing consecutive road games and they are facing a good defense with a suspect offense. That’s never a good thing. The Browns won behind that defense last week at Jacksonville and should find a way to limit this Giants offense this week. Browns take it. 

Pick: Browns 21, Giants 10

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bears are on the road for a second straight week and they are facing a desperate 0-2 team. The Colts have been gashed in the run game the past few weeks, which could mean a lot of D’Andre Swift. Both Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams have to play better, but this is a tough spot for Richardson. Even so, I think he plays the better of the two. 

Pick: Colts 23, Bears 20

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a big game between two undefeated teams. The Vikings are a surprise team, while the Texans were expected to be good. The Minnesota defense has been really good. They will throw a ton of looks at C.J. Stroud. I think that will be the difference in the game. They will force a turnover and get a lot of pressure. The Vikings win a close one. 

Pick: Vikings 24, Texans 21

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Eagles should be rolling in at 2-0, but coach Nick Sirianni cost them Monday’s game with the Falcons with a bad decision late. The biggest problem, though, is the defense. They have been awful against the run, while the Saints have been good running it. Look for the Saints to get to 3-0 behind their run game. 

Pick: Saints 27, Eagles 20

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model also likes the Saints to cover as part of its best five-team parlay for Week 3. See the model’s entire Week 3 NFL parlay at SportsLine.  

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a game featuring two 2-0 teams, both with physical styles that will show up each and every Sunday. The Steelers have the better defense, but the Chargers are better on offense with Justin Herbert. They are playing consecutive road games, but it won’t matter. They win it on the road. 

Pick: Chargers 21, Steelers 17

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Bucs are riding high, while the Broncos are having major offensive issues with Bo Nix. The Tampa Bay defense is playing well, even undermanned, which will carry over here. Baker Mayfield will also play well. The Bucs keep rolling. 

Pick: Bucs 26, Broncos 13

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Will Levis has made two bonehead plays in their two games to keep the Titans from a victory. He has to be better. For the Packers, this will again likely be Malik Willis at quarterback against his former team. Willis was solid last week, but it was the run game that helped Green Bay beat the Colts. That will be tougher here against a good Titans defense. Look for a defensive battle won by the Titans. 

Pick: Titans 21, Packers 17

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Andy Dalton is in as the starter for the benched Bryce Young for the Panthers. He can’t be any worse, but this is a good Raiders defense. Gardner Minshew has played well, especially last week. The Raiders will win this behind the defense and Minshew to get to 2-1. 

Pick: Raiders 24, Panthers 10

Bonus: SportsLine’s R.J. White identified the Seahawks and Texans as good pivots in NFL survivor pools away from consensus favorites that lost in the first two weeks. He’s staying away from the Raiders, but see which survivor picks he likes at SportsLine.  

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a tough first start for Skylar Thompson in place of Tua Tagovailoa. Seattle is as tough as it gets for a road venue and the Seahawks are playing well. The Seattle offense has looked good in two games, which will continue here. Look for a big game from Geno Smith. Seahawks go to 3-0. 

Pick: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 16

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Lions are out on the road for the first time, while the Cardinals are coming off an impressive home victory over the Rams. Arizona was outstanding on offense with Kyler Murray, which will stress the Lions defense. Look for Arizona to win a shootout that could get each team into the 30s. 

Pick: Cardinals 31, Lions 29

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This game has lost some luster with the Ravens at 0-2 and the Cowboys getting blown out last week. Both teams have issues, but the biggest is the Ravens offensive line. After watching what the Saints did to the Dallas defense, they will overcome that and run Derrick Henry. The Ravens will get their first victory on the road against the Cowboys.

Pick: Ravens 27, Cowboys 24

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The 49ers are playing a second straight road game after losing to the Vikings, while the Rams are playing their home opener. That’s a tough combination. Both teams are hurting with top stars out of the lineup. The 49ers are deeper and that will show up. They take it behind a good game from Brock Purdy.

Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 18

Bonus: SportsLine’s AI PickBot has identified A-grade picks on both the spread and total for this game, with its total play the best on the entire slate. See every AI PickBot projection for Week 3 at SportsLine.  

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

The Falcons are playing on a short week after beating the Eagles with a last-minute touchdown. The Atlanta offense was much improved from Week One, which is a good thing. The Chiefs looked sluggish on offense against the Bengals, but they will get it gong here. Their speed shows up on the fast track. 

Pick: Chiefs 32, Falcons 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)

The Bills are playing with a lot of rest, while the 0-2 Jaguars are coming off two close losses. That’s a big edge for the Bills, as is a home Monday night game. But the biggest edge is their defense against the Jacksonville offense, which is struggling. The Bills keep rolling. 

Pick: Bills 28, Jaguars 17

Bonus: SportsLine’s hottest NFL expert Jason La Canfora made this game part of his early best bets, out every Monday morning at SportsLine. See the rest of his early Week 3 plays here.  

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-8)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)

The Commanders won for the first time last week, while the Bengals are still searching for their first one. They played well at Kansas City and probably should have won the game. That will continue here as they play much better and  get the best of the Commanders with Joe Burrow having a big game. 

Pick: Bengals 29, Commanders 16