Red-zone struggles are holding back the New York Giants’ improved offense

• The Giants’ offense shows more life: Daniel Jones recorded a season-best 80.9 overall grade against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4, and the offensive line moved up 11 spots in pass-blocking grade.

• High red-zone chances haven’t paid off: The Giants rank third in red-zone plays and second in goal-line plays but are scoring touchdowns on only 15% of possessions.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Entering last Thursday night’s matchup between the Cowboys and the Giants, there appeared a clear foregone conclusion: Dallas kicker Brandon Aubrey wouldn’t miss from long range. Instead, by the night’s end, there was an even starker realization amid a shocking Aubrey miss — that New York is seemingly unable to convert promising possessions into touchdowns.

The Giants had five possessions that reached within the Cowboys’ 35-yard line. Their outcomes were all identical: they ended with field goals.

Despite controlling the clock and outgaining Dallas in both time of possession and total yardage, the Giants struggled to convert their opportunities in the red zone. It’s a frustrating irony for a team that endured offensive woes last season.

With head coach Brian Daboll replacing Mike Kafka as the team’s playcaller, marginally better results have followed. The Giants now sit 24th in offensive EPA per play after finishing 29th last year, but there have been major improvements in departments like pass-blocking and receiver separation thanks to both marquee additions and better health.

More specifically, the Giants’ offensive currently ranks 19th in pass-blocking grade — up from 32nd last year — and wideouts Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson have served as viable targets, with each posting a receiving grade of at least 69.0.

Remarkably, even maligned quarterback Daniel Jones has started to look a little bit more like the composed and effective player we saw in 2022. Against Dallas, Jones recorded an 80.9 overall grade and an 80.0 passing grade, both of which marked season-highs.

The former first-rounder wasn’t as sharp deep downfield, finishing 1-for-6 with just a 59.3 passing grade, but he still displayed an ability to make tight-window throws.

It’s worth noting that Jones’ metrics over the season (66.7 overall grade, 63.5 passing grade) are still below average, but there have been moments of promise, including posting a career-low 2.4% turnover-worthy play percentage.

On the surface, that all seems like extremely good news for an offense under tremendous scrutiny this year — one that failed in almost every facet last year. However, the deeper problem has been converting successful possessions into touchdowns instead of merely driving the ball downfield.

Daniel Jones: PFF grades and basic passing stats since 2019

This season, the Giants rank 11th in red-zone plays and seventh in goal-line plays. Despite that, the team has scored only six red-zone touchdowns. The team has scored a touchdown on only 46.2% of its red-zone drives, a rate that ranks 23rd in the NFL.

Altogether, Big Blue is 25th in successful play percentage and 23rd in EPA per play in the red zone.

So, what gives?

Some of the statistical fault lies in the decision to kick a field goal on the Cowboys’ 3-yard line — a decision that win probabilities verifiably rebuked — and which was largely uncharacteristic of the fourth-down decisions that Daboll made the rest of last Thursday night.

Daniel Jones: Passing under pressure in 2024

Jones, too, needs to play better football once in the red zone. The 27-year-old ranks 20th among 28 qualifying quarterbacks in red-zone passing grade this year, and his 68.8% adjusted completion percentage in that area is 14th.

Through four games of a do-or-die 2024 season, the 1-3 Giants have displayed more tenacity than expected. They rebounded well from a dismal Week 1 performance against the Vikings and were competitive against the Commanders, Browns and Cowboys.

With a daunting schedule approaching for the next four games — Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles and Steelers — Daboll and Jones will need to refine their performance on the other side of the 50 to realize better win-loss results.