Replacing Xavier McKinney at safety won’t be easy for Giants

The New York Giants have had a changing of the guard in their safety position. New defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is implementing a more split-safety-oriented defense that deviates from Bowen’s predecessor, Wink Martindale.

Former New York Giant and current Green Bay Packer Xavier McKinney would fit in Bowen’s system. However, a four-year, $67-million contract with $23 million guaranteed, which is what McKinney received from the Packers, was not something the Giants were willing to give him. GM Joe Schoen combated that loss with the second-round selection of Tyler Nubin and the addition of veteran Jalen Mills.

A valid argument for whether the Giants will be better or worse, and we explore those arguments below.

Key losses: Xavier McKinney

Key additions: Tyler Nubin, Jalen Mills

Why the Giants might be better

It’s difficult to replace a player who played every single defensive snap and was a team captain last season, but the Giants took steps to do so.

The Giants’ defensive change will likely result in more two-read coverages and fewer single-high defenses. This means the safeties have less responsibility in terms of space — less centerfield — but more reading and reacting.

Read, react, and attack should have been Tyler Nubin’s motto in Minnesota. He broke the record for Golden Gophers’ interception leader in college with 13 interceptions. He understands timing, has excellent eyes, and is solid in run support. He also understands Bowen’s defense’s verbiage, which should make for a smoother transition.

The addition of Mills doesn’t engender excitement, but he can act as a veteran mentor to Nubin, Jason Pinnock, and Dane Belton — all 25 years old or under. Mills is 30 and has extensive experience as a safety and overhang defender with the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s plausible that Pinnock and Belton — with another year under the belt — take a necessary step in their development to allow the safety room to flourish under the tutelage of defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson, but the loss of McKinney is tough.

I was a believer in McKinney. He’s a good football player, and I’m not questioning his character. But to have an honest conversation, we must look at some of McKinney’s off-field mistakes in his short time as a Giant.

During the 2022 BYE week, with the Giants at an improbable 6-2, McKinney took a vacation to Cabo, Mexico, where he rode an ATV on a sightseeing tour. Unfortunately for McKinney, his ATV lost control, and he suffered a serious hand injury.

This allowed Belton to play, but, as he mentioned on a podcast, he was still dealing with issues from his collarbone injury. The emergence of Jason Pinnock helped the situation in the long run, but to say it was a massive issue would be an understatement.

McKinney also called out the Giants coaching staff after the team’s 30-6 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders last season:

“I think that from a leadership standpoint, I don’t think they’ve (the coaching staff) done a great job of letting the leaders lead and listening to the leaders and the captains…It was one of those things where you have some of your leaders, captains from a defensive standpoint, trying to switch things up…and just not really being heard.”

It’s easy to see how McKinney’s comments became another distraction, but a defensive leader voicing his honest opinions of a 2-7 team has merit, although one would prefer they be kept in-house.

The latter situation could receive some credence in retrospect after witnessing the tumultuous end of the Martindale era in New York. The former situation could also be perceived as a silly mistake from a 23-year-old. One’s perception of these situations and McKinney’s effect on the Giants are in the eye of the beholder. Either way, there is a massive 1,128-play void that must be filled by another competent player.

Why the Giants might be worse

Of all the players discussed in this article, McKinney is the best. McKinney was an experienced leader of the Giants’ defense and was only 24 years old. He was a two-time captain who played every single snap on Wink Martindale’s defense last season. He had 11 passes defended, nine interceptions, and was excellent in run support while wearing many hats in two separate defenses since arriving in New York.

Pro Football Focus had McKinney as the league’s highest-graded coverage safety, and he sported the best safety tackling grade. He also had the fourth-highest defensive grade of any safety. McKinney has made 222 tackles in his career and missed 21 total tackles. He has never had a missed tackle rate of 10% in any season. He’s a sure-tackler with solid coverage instincts.

The Giants hope that Nubin will quickly assimilate into the defense — and the speed of the NFL — while Pinnock will adapt to a different role in Bowen’s defense. I think both of these hopes can materialize. Belton and Mills are both solid depth in Bowen’s defense that run three-safety looks often with the Tennessee Titans.

Still, McKinney is tough to replace.

Roster projection

Locks: Jason Pinnock, Tyler Nubin, Dane Belton, Jalen Mills
On the bubble: Gervarrius Owens
Long shots: Elijah Riley

Final thoughts

Last season, the Giants only played three safeties the entire year — McKinney, Pinnock, and Belton. McKinney and Pinnock played more than 1,000 snaps. Development and the change in defense could result in an average safety group in 2024 despite the lack of perceived star power. However, the loss of McKinney is still a burden that the defense must overcome. It’s hard to replace a captain who played every snap and was competent in every role he was assigned. For that, I must go with the Giants being worse now than last season.