Special election to be planned for NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, Sunday, Oct. 27, in New York. (AP photo — Alex Brandon)

Things move fast. Less than a week after North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik handily won reelection for another two-year term to represent the North Country in Congress, she accepted an appointment by the recently reelected President Donald Trump to serve as his ambassador to the United Nations.

This appointment still needs to be confirmed by the Senate. But the news of her potentially leaving the seat has already triggered a hurried discussion of a special election being called to fill the vacancy, and speculation of who might run.

This abbreviated election cycle will condense all the fundraising, campaigning, organizing and voting — which usually takes place over a year — into a few short months.

Trump is also seeking to bypass the Senate confirmation for some positions through a process for recess appointments.

Stefanik’s first day on the job would be Inauguration Day — Jan. 20, 2025.

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How does a special election work?

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State Board of Elections Public Information Director Kathleen McGrath laid out the roadmap for what will happen for the Enterprise.

When the vacancy actually occurs — when Stefanik officially pens a resignation letter — Gov. Kathy Hochul will have 10 days to issue a proclamation calling for a special election. Then, the election must be held within 70 to 80 days of the proclamation. It is unclear when Stefanik would submit a resignation letter — after the Senate confirms her appointment, after her new term begins, after her first day on the job or at any other point. Stefanik did not reply to a question about when she plans to write this letter.

Only after the governor’s proclamation is made will the state BoE develop a special calendar for this election. This calendar will include deadlines for candidates to file and be nominated to get on the ballot.

There would be no primary. Whatever candidates the parties field will be entirely decided by the district’s party chairs. Major party nominations must be made within 10 days of Hochul announcing the election. Independent candidates will have 12 days to be nominated.

McGrath said the state’s constituted parties — Democratic, Republican, Conservative and Working Families — will select their nominees based on their party’s rules. Special elections are not actually covered under state election law. They are governed by the public officers law. The procedure for selecting nominees are set by party rules.

“The independent nominating petition process exists for those seeking ballot lines other than the four official parties,” McGrath said. “The process is largely the same as for General Elections, but … the window to collect these signatures and submit them is a bit smaller given the truncated timeline that exists for special elections.”

Voters will be able to register up to 10 days before this election. Early voting for this election will last for nine days, and must begin 10 days before the election.

The calendar will also include information on requesting early mail and absentee ballots, as well as military and UOCAVA ballots.

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Who might run?

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The news of a special election has also spawned a lot of speculation over who might run — from former NY-21 candidates who were already planning a rerun in 2026, to state legislators and county executives.

Right now, the people vying for the position are campaigning to only a handful of people — the county party chairs who would nominate them.

Paula Collins, a cannabis lawyer who is fresh off a NY-21 campaign against Stefanik, said she is working for a second run for the seat sooner than expected. When she conceded the election on Nov. 5, she announced her plans to run in 2026. On Tuesday, she told the Enterprise she was seeking to be the Democratic candidate in the special election.

Collins’ race against Stefanik ended last week with her getting 36.50% of the vote, and Stefanik taking 60.31%.

Collins said she’s expressed her interest to run to the Democratic Party chairs for the district’s 15 counties. She thinks its important for voters to have continuity in the race. After all, she still plans to run in 2026.

Another Democrat — state Assemblyman Billy Jones, D-Chateaugay Lake — told the Watertown Daily Times that he had been discussing a run for congress with some people, but not with party leadership, on Monday. On Tuesday, he told the Enterprise he was focused on the upcoming Assembly legislative session after winning reelection uncontested.

“Our current congresswoman has not even resigned and it is still very early in the process of selecting candidates for this position,” he wrote in a text.

State Sen. Dan Stec, R-Queensbury, is a local name being floated by several news outlets for a potential Republican nomination, but he has not indicated if he would seek a run or not. He congratulated Stefanik on her nomination, but his staff did not respond to an Enterprise inquiry about the speculation on his candidacy.

Other Republicans speculated to take on the race are Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who represents a large portion of the Adirondacks in a district from Gloversville up through Long Lake; Assemblymen Chris Tague, who represents an area west of Albany and south of Gloversville; Joe Pinion, a television commentator who lost a federal Senate bid against Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer in 2022 and Rensselaer County Executive Steven McLaughlin.

Asked if she plans to endorse a candidate in the special election, Stefanik did not respond.

Collins hopes the county party chairs might pick a nominee even before Stefanik resigns.

“Time is of the essence,” she said, adding that after getting a late start for the Nov. 5 election, she’d want to get an early start on the special election.

She also said local Democrats might be looking to bounce back from the sting of Election Day.

A special election is something new for Collins, too. Even she was not sure how county party chairs will pick their nominees.

“Maybe it will be like when they pick a pope and there will be a puff of smoke,” Collins joked. “That would be kind of cool.”

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National interest

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This special election might make for a fierce battle with national interest, as the balance of power in the House is up in the air between the Republican and Democratic parties after the Nov. 5 election. As of Tuesday, the GOP held 218 seats and the Democrats held 209 seats, with around eight seats still yet to be called — including races in Maine, Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Oregon, Ohio and several in Southern California.

The Republicans currently hold a majority in the House and won a Senate majority in the election last week. If NY-21 enters another race, it might be an important race for either party to maintain or grab power in the House.

According to the New York Times, Democrats immediately began assessing their chances of flipping the seat on Monday. This could make the special election a well-funded one.

There will also be a gap between when Stefanik’s seat is vacated and when it is refilled, meaning the GOP will have a temporary thinning of its representation.

While Democrats might see an opportunity to strike, the NY-21 district has become a solid Republican district. Before Stefanik, Democrat Bill Owens held the seat for six years. But after redrawing of district lines in the GOP’s favor, and shifts in portions of the district’s politics, the district was not a focus for national Democrats in the last election.

The last congressional special election the state BoE ran was for NY-26 in the Buffalo area in April.

Stefanik’s departure would also trigger a battle for her Republican House Conference Chair position. Several representatives are vying for the seat, including Michigan’s Lisa McClain, Florida’s Kat Cammack and Indiana’s Erin Houchin.