St. John’s vs. Baylor prediction, odds: College basketball picks, best bets

Our first matchup of the Baha Mar Championship in the Bahamas will be between two ranked teams: Baylor and St. John’s.

The Bears boast an elite offensive attack, while St. John’s has one of the country’s most versatile and switchable defensive units. 

We are in store for an incredible matchup between these two championship-contending teams, but which squad will win this early-season battle in the Bahamas?

St. John’s vs. Baylor odds

St. John’s vs. Baylor prediction

Baylor didn’t take too long to bounce back from its embarrassing 38-point opening night loss to the high-octane Gonzaga Bulldogs.

The Bears secured a five-point win against a ranked Arkansas team before dismantling two non-conference opponents en route to back-to-back 104-point outings.

In fact, Baylor held its last opponent (Tarleton State) to merely 13 points through 20 minutes of play, winning the first half by 43 points. 

Meanwhile, St. John’s enters its second year of the Rick Pitino era after a solid 20-13 season. The Johnnies have started the 2024-25 campaign with a 4-0 record, but they haven’t won as convincingly as Baylor has in its past two games.

This should be a tight, grind-it-out game, with Baylor holding a slight advantage. After all, great offense beats great defense, right?

St. John’s vs. Baylor pick

Baylor’s offensive attack has finally gained some confidence and taken shape.

Over their past three outings, the Bears rank 10th in points per game (93.3) despite ranking 272nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

The Bears’ half-court offense and shooting (62.2% effective field goal percentage) have made them dangerous in that stretch. Despite a horrible first game against the Zags, they have the fifth-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating this season.

However, it isn’t just their ability to hit shots that have propelled them into another stratosphere; they also rank third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, allowing them to pile on second-chance points on opponents.

Betting on College Basketball?

Unfortunately, I haven’t been impressed with St. John’s ability to secure defensive rebounds. The Johnnies rank 133rd in defensive rebounding percentage, which could be a death sentence against a team like Baylor that thrives on second-chance points.

I also see a world where Baylor slows the pace way down, forcing the Johnnies to play defense for most of the shot clock and limiting their transition opportunities. 

The recipe for Baylor is simple: crash the offensive glass, move the ball around, slow the pace and keep the Johnnies out of the paint and in the half-court.

The Pick: Baylor -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.