Stanford vs. Syracuse odds, predictions: Week 4 college football picks, best bets Friday

Syracuse’s offense looks transformed behind new head coach Fran Brown and offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon.

The Orange are passing at a top-15 rate (nearly 60%), while ranking top 10 in college football in EPA per dropback and pass success rate. 

New QB Kyle McCord ripped off 350 yards against Ohio and 380 against Georgia Tech, hitting former All-American tight end Oronde Gadsen for 13 catches, 200 yards and three scores.

While I expect some red-zone and third-down regression, Syracuse looks to be an elite pro-style passing offense. 

Stanford’s defense will likely not force that regression.

After two games against TCU and Cal Poly, the Cardinal rank outside the top 100 nationally in EPA per dropback allowed, pass success rate allowed and Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

While OK in the front seven, the secondary has been carved up and should be again this week. 

However, I worry about Syracuse’s defense.

The Orange switched from a three-man to a four-man front this year and rank 120th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. 

Stanford’s offense is far from elite, but dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels should expose Syracuse’s leaky rush defense – he’s amassed more than 150 rushing yards on 20 carries through two games.

Betting on College Football?

And don’t sleep on Elic Ayomanor, among the ACC’s most explosive wideouts (2.3 yards per route run since the start of last season).

The matchup seems primed for points, and I project the total closer to 60. 

THE PLAY: Stanford-Syracuse Over 56.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.