Temple vs. Oklahoma prediction, odds: College football picks, best bets Friday

This is the time of the college football season when you get quite a few “bye” games, with the big programs paying the lesser schools a guaranteed fee for a home matchup while the visitors walk away with a big check and a loss for their efforts.

One of those matchups this week involves the Oklahoma Sooners hosting the Temple Owls on Friday night in Norman.

Oklahoma is as high at some sportsbooks as a 42.5-point favorite after opening at 39.5. We’ve also seen some movement in the total, which dropped from 60.5 to 57.

Given that these odds are pretty stale since sportsbooks began releasing their lines in late May, there’s not much value still available at the current numbers. In these situations, bettors should consider targeting other options, such as derivatives in the form of team totals.

Temple vs. Oklahoma odds

Temple preview: Unsettled quarterback situation

Temple’s starting quarterback position remains unsettled following E.J. Warner’s transfer to Rice. The Arizona product had nearly a 2-to-1 TD-INT (23-12) ratio while throwing for 3,076 yards in 2023.

Coach Stan Drayton is resorting to deception by opting not to announce his starting quarterback. The decision will likely come down to two redshirt juniors, Forrest Brock and Rutgers transfer Evan Simon.

Brock’s lone college experience was a 55-0 loss to SMU last season when he went 7-of-15 for 60 yards with an interception.

As for Simon, he began the 2022 season as Rutgers’ starting quarterback before losing the job to Gavin Wimsatt.

Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Temple has the fifth-worst returning production (37%) from a team that went just 3-9 overall and 1-7 in the American Athletic Conference.

With players transferring out of the program and not much quality coming back, the Owls could be in for a very long game — and season.

Oklahoma preview: Jackson Arnold ready to lead offense

This game won’t offer much insight into how the Sooners will perform this season following their transition to the SEC.

Like Temple, Oklahoma will also feature a new starting quarterback following Dillon Gabriel’s transfer to Oregon. However, unlike the Owls, the Sooners have a former five-star recruit in Jackson Arnold, who looks poised to take the reins.

Arnold completed 26-of-45 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 38-24 loss to Arizona in last season’s Alamo Bowl. 

While he threw three interceptions in the game, the feedback on his performance was reasonably positive for a quarterback making his first college start for a team that was also missing some key players due to opt-outs.

According to 247Sports, Oklahoma’s roster sits seventh in its Talent Composite Index compared to Temple, which ranks 104th.

There’s simply too much of a gulf in talent between these two teams and the Sooners have much more stability, with a returning production of 65%.

Temple vs. Oklahoma pick

Oklahoma should be able to name its score against this Temple outfit. The Owls managed just 14 points in two games last season against Power 5 schools (Rutgers and Miami).

Now they’ll have to face a Sooners team with an even higher power rating than those opponents last year, while introducing a new starting quarterback.

For comparison, Oklahoma defeated Arkansas State, 73-0, in its season opener a year ago and the Red Wolves finished the year with a higher power rating than Temple.

Defenses are generally ahead of the offense at this stage of the season, and Oklahoma’s Brent Venables is regarded as one of the best defensive minds in the country.

Betting on College Football?

Even if Oklahoma jumps out to a big lead and pulls its starters, it’s difficult to see the Owls putting up much of an offensive threat.

While most sportsbooks have yet to release team totals for Friday’s game, bet365 has some alternate lines for Temple at under 9.5 (-175) and 6.5 (+125).

Given those prices, we should get a standard team total of 7.5 or 8.5 before kickoff with reduced odds.

Since those options weren’t available at the time of this writing, I’ll look to back Temple’s team total of under 9.5 points before adding to my position when more lines are released.

Pick: Temple team total under 9.5 points (-175, bet365)