Texas vs. Arkansas pick: College football odds, predictions, best bets Saturday

The Arkansas Razorbacks will look to bounce back from a 32-point loss to Ole Miss when they host the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. 

As for Texas, it can ill afford a slip-up now that it’s up to third in the College Football Playoff ranking.

The Razorbacks have proven they could be dangerous, given their 19-14 home victory over the seventh-ranked Volunteers.

However, the Longhorns are a far superior offensive team that should be motivated to start fast as they try to avenge a 40-21 loss the last time they faced Arkansas in 2021. 

Texas vs. Arkansas odds

(12 p.m. ET, ABC)

Texas vs. Arkansas prediction

Texas Longhorns betting preview 

Per Game On Paper, Texas enters this contest as the second-ranked team in the country based on the Net Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play metric (+0.39).

This team is solid on both ends of the ball, and quarterback Quinn Ewers should be brimming with confidence after throwing for five touchdowns against Florida.

Ewers’ performance in the passing game will be critical because the secondary is where the Razorbacks are most vulnerable, ranking 121st in both EPA per Dropback (-0.15) and Passer Success Rate (47.2%). 

Remarkably, the Arkansas defense has allowed nine passing plays of 50 or more yards—the second-worst mark among FBS schools.

With this matchup almost tailormade for Ewers and his ability to throw the deep ball, it’s difficult to see how the Razorbacks will slow down this Longhorns offense.

Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green should be back under center after sitting out the second half of the Ole Miss game with a knee injury.

While there’s a lot to like about the dual-option quarterback, who has the physique of a bruising runner at 6-foot-6, he can be a bit turnover-prone, as he’s thrown at least one interception in six of the nine games he’s played in thus far.

A closer look reveals that Green might not be as much of a threat on the ground when facing quality SEC defenses.

He had 13 carries for six yards against Texas A&M, nine for minus-5 yards against Tennessee, six for minus-10 when facing LSU and 10 for 16 recently against Ole Miss.

Moreover, Ole Miss sacked Green five times, and he was sacked three times in five other games this season.

Those sacks suggest that Green has clearly been under pressure inside the pocket, which probably led to those interceptions. 

With the Longhorns ranking fifth in takeaways (2.2 per game), they’ll be ready to capitalize off any mistakes by Green early on.

Longhorns vs Razorbacks Pick

Although I like Texas to win this game, I’m a bit leery of laying double-digit points with the potential for a back door cover late.

As a result, I prefer to back the Longhorns on the first-half spread at -6.5.

Texas will easily be the best team that Arkansas will face this season. If you look at the Razorbacks’ victory over Tennessee, you’ll see that while the Volunteers are a quality defensive unit, their offense is woeful, ranking 90th in Adjusted EPA per Play (-0.04).

Betting on College Football?

There’s no question that Arkansas should be lauded for defeating Tennessee. However, Texas is in a completely different ballpark.

With Arkansas likely needing some time to adjust to the speed of the Longhorns, a first-half play makes a ton of sense in this spot.

Best bet: Texas 1H -6.5 (-122, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.