The mega-money calculations behind Jalen Brunson’s Knicks extension decision

The NBA is about to sign a media rights deal so large that the amount should only be read in Dr. Evil’s voice: 76 billion dollars.

Roughly half that money is going to the players based on the revenue split dictated in the collective bargaining agreement, which means salaries will skyrocket. Beginning with the 2025-26 season, the expectation is the salary cap will increase annually by the maximum allowable 10%.

By the end of the decade, the cap should exceed $200 million. Not long after that, annual salaries easily could exceed $100 million as part of $600 million contracts.

We’ve come a long way from the Nets using the amnesty clause on Travis Outlaw in 2012 because his $7 million was too prohibitive.

So how will this impact the Knicks?

It’s difficult to predict, but the easiest thing to map out also involves their most important player: Jalen Brunson.

The star point guard, who is currently recovering from surgery to repair a fractured shooting hand and turns 28 in August, is eligible for an extension this summer.

Per the CBA, Brunson can sign at 40% above his previous salary with 8% raises annually. That doesn’t even cover inflation nowadays (only half kidding).

Because Brunson’s current contract descends in salary and pays out roughly $25 million next season, the extension can only max out at approximately four years, $156.5 million.

It would break down like this:

2025-26: $35 million
2026-27: $38 million
2027-28: $41 million
2028-29: $43 million

Considering Brunson’s production and the way it rises in the playoffs, the max extension route leads to an underpay for a player who will be in his 30s when it’s over.

There are 33 players who are scheduled to earn more than $35 million in 2025-26, and they include:

• Desmond Bane
• Michael Porter Jr.
• Darius Garland
• LaMelo Ball
• Trae Young
• Bradley Beal
• DeAndre Ayton

Brunson is better than all of them.

So what is his other option?

Brunson could wait for free agency in 2025, when he’s eligible for a much bigger contract. The exact number is difficult to project because we don’t know the cap number for 2025-26 (and a standard max deal represents 30% of the cap), but, taking into account the massive TV deal raising the cap by 10% annually starting in 2025-26, we’re comfortable calling Brunson’s max a five-year deal worth around $260 million-$270 million.

That’s a hefty difference from the current potential extension. But it’s not a given Brunson goes to free agency.

During last season, which, it should be noted, was prior to Brunson’s powerful and potentially decision-altering playoff performances, a source said the point guard was at least open to signing an extension.

And there would be valid reasons.

The first is the obvious security — $165 million in hand is worth more than the possibility of $270 million. Second, there’s the long-term math.

Let’s say Brunson signs an extension with an opt-out for the fourth year. At that point in 2028, Brunson will hit free agency with eligibility for a veteran max (35% of the cap) because he just completed his 10th NBA season.

Brunson’s projected max contract in 2028 would be five years, $419 million. It would start with a $72 million salary.

It would be a massive number, largely because of the TV windfall getting absorbed into the cap. Indeed, $76 billion goes a long way.

Not taking the easy way out

Sidwell Friends in Washington D.C. is the school of choice for family members of U.S. presidents, whether it was a Clinton, an Obama, a Biden, a Kennedy, a Nixon or a Roosevelt.

It was also the high school of Josh Hart, who went there for basketball but found his life path.

In an interview with “The Pivot” podcast, Hart detailed why attending such a prestigious and academically challenging school was both difficult and rewarding.

“My grades were rough. I went to public school my whole life,” Hart said. “Public school, you turn your stuff in, you get Bs, Cs, whatever. So I’m like freshman year in high school, my GPA was 3.6. I was cool. I was locked in. And then I transferred to Sidwell, and it was like they were speaking a different language with stuff they were learning. I couldn’t comprehend what they were talking about. They were excavating poems and talking about, ‘This author would put a capital letter here on this word in the middle of the sentence and that means he’s getting the reader to fully comprehend.’ … And I’m like, ‘What the hell are you talking about?’ …

“So my grades were bad. And I would take an hour bus ride to school. So I would be up at 6. And first-period English, I’d be falling asleep. … So after my sophomore year, they were like — and I think my dad still has the letter — they gave him a letter, ‘We think he’ll be more successful elsewhere with his basketball career.’ The thing that was cool is people around me — my friends, people in the Sidwell community, parents and teachers — they kind of went to bat for me and said we didn’t give him the proper resources to be successful. They kind of rallied and changed the headmaster’s decision to let me back in. And at that point I was like, ‘I can’t leave that support structure that went to bat for me.’”

Hart said sticking with Sidwell — which required a commitment he hadn’t previously attempted — was his big moment.

“Montrose Christian School [in Rockville, Md.] was a top-5, top-10 basketball program in the country. That’s kind of where I wanted to go,” Hart said. “…That was the biggest thing. Choosing to stay [at Sidwell] … at the end of the day it wasn’t just like, ‘OK, I’m going to stay and have fun.’ It’s, ‘I know this path isn’t going to be easy.’ I’m going to have to live with another family.

“[O]n Saturdays, there was a lady named Nikki Bravo who helped me with academics. So I would go from my host family’s house Monday to Friday. Basically all day Saturday, I’m at Nikki Bravo’s house. Sunday, I’m at my parents. And Monday, I’m doing it all over again. … So it’s a combination of that — knowing that the road wasn’t going to be easy, but I still chose to do it, chose to go through the adversity head on. And just from my personal life, I probably wouldn’t have my wife. She went to high school with me. My best friends now went to my high school. So if you look at everything in my life, it’s all really based on high school. And based on what happened in high school. And if I made that choice to go to Montrose, my path would have been totally different.”

Silence isn’t golden

Most teams across all professional leagues hold media availabilities after the season. It’s sometimes called baggie day because it immediately follows players cleaning out their lockers. Or garbage bag day. Or exit interview day.

At some time before or after those interviews, the team’s top executive holds a State of the Union press conference about the team.

The Knicks, however, don’t do any of that.

For a sixth straight year, the team made zero players available in the days after elimination. Leon Rose, who has never answered questions by himself to the independent media since being hired in 2020, declined a request from beat writers for a postseason interview.

Good or bad on the court, at least the front office is consistently silent. But I have two big problems with it:

1. A lack of transparency turns into a lack of accountability if things don’t go well.

2. The fans I see applauding the silence on social media are the same fans asking what’s the strategy with OG Anunoby’s free agency, Isaiah Hartenstein’s free agency, Julius Randle’s recovery, the draft, the trade market, Tom Thibodeau’s extension, Brunson’s extension, past trades involving draft picks Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes. Guess who I’d like to ask those questions?