The stock market is booming and the economy is strong, but job anxiety is soaring

The portmanteau “vibecession,” coined by Gen-Z economist and TikTok star Kyla Scanlon, refers to the disconnect that occurs when public financial sentiment is negative even though the economy isn’t in a recession. Given the growing chasm between the stock market and job anxiety, the phenomenon appears to be in full swing. 

A labor-market expectations survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the average expected likelihood of being unemployed rose to 4.4% in July, the highest level since 2014 and up from 3.9% a year earlier. 

The number of people seeking a job in July was also at its highest since 2014, at 28.4%—a marked increase over the 19.4% seeking jobs a year ago. The report, which surveyed 1,000 nationally representative respondents, also highlighted several other worrying labor trends including a record-low number of people still working for the same employer.

Meanwhile, the survey comes as the overall stock market recorded its eighth straight week of gains on Monday and retail sales in July recorded their biggest increase in over a year. 

Still, signs of softening in the labor market, including a weaker-than-expected July jobs report and rising unemployment, have some worried about a vibecession. A June study by buy-now, pay-later company Affirm found that a majority of people believed that the U.S. was in a recession. Meanwhile top economists like Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel believe the U.S. is in a “Goldilocks economy” with strong growth and slowing inflation. Economists use the term to describe an economy that’s “just right,” or not too cold, and not too hot, as in the children’s story “Goldilocks and the Three Bears.”

Accordingly, market participants will have their eyes fixed on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s annual speech, on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for signs of an impending interest rate cut. 

Top Federal Reserve leaders have taken notice of weakening labor numbers ahead of the three-day Jackson Hole meeting, and several have said the Fed needs to monitor its other mandate, striving for maximum employment. 

Both Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed president Mary C. Daly said the central bank was closely watching unemployment to gauge whether to cut rates and if so, by how much. 

And last week, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told the Financial Times that he was open to the idea of the central bank cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, and that the Fed has to be “extra vigilant.” 

“Because our policies act with a lag in both directions, we can’t really afford to be late. We have to act as soon as possible,” he said.