This realistic Daniel Jones hypothetical triples the Giants’ playoff chances, but there’s still work to do

A little more than a month ago, after Giants quarterback Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in a 28-26 loss to the Vikings in the teams’ season opener, the back page of the New York Post read, “Daniel Groans: Jones lays a big egg as boo birds come out early in ugly Weak 1 loss.”

What are those headline-writing punsters in New York saying now? The Giants (2-3) have won two of their last three games to climb back into the playoff hunt, and Jones is a big reason why. 

The 27-year-old quarterback, who has been a popular punching bag in the concrete jungle ever since he was selected No. 6 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, is in the midst of a renaissance. Over the last four games, he has completed 67.6% of his passes for 952 yards and six touchdowns against just one interception (on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the Cowboys game two weeks ago). His 99.3 passer rating over that time ranks 10th in the league, ahead of more heralded quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Aaron Rodgers and, yes, even Patrick Mahomes.

What in the name of Danny Dimes is going on?

“I think just kind of focusing on what I’m doing right now,” Jones said after the Giants’ 29-20 win on Sunday over the 3-1 Seahawks. “I feel like I’m a better player than I was [in 2022]. I’m a better player every week. That’s what you’re always striving for. You know, I get comparing to ’22 or years past or whatever. I don’t know how productive that really is. Just focus on getting better right now and being the best I can be week to week.”

But is this Jones good enough to get the Giants back in the playoffs? Not quite, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, still sees Jones as a limited quarterback, projecting him for 15 or 16 passing touchdowns and nine or 10 interceptions over the remaining 12 games of the season. The model projects New York for 6.4 total wins and gives the Giants just a 3.3% chance of reaching the playoffs, still the worst percentage among the four NFC East teams.

However, there’s one thing about how the computer model crunches the numbers that gives New York more hope. Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says the model uses data from the current season and the previous one only. That means Jones’ 2022 season, in which he threw 15 touchdowns against just five interceptions, was not factored into the projections while his injury-shortened 2023 season, in which he had two touchdowns and six interceptions over six games, was.

If Jones is able to maintain the low interception rate from 2022 while improving his touchdown passes per game to 1.6, then the Giants have a 10.9% chance of making the playoffs, more than triple the original projection.

“For the Giants to approach true wild card potential,” Oh says, “they will need Jones to be even better than he’s been.”

New York coach Brian Daboll believes Jones can do that.

“Daniel Jones has done everything that I and we have asked him to do,” he said. “He’s here early. He stays late. He’s got good leadership traits. It’s never been easy for him. But everything we’ve asked him to do, he does it the very best he can do it. And he has played some good football here. We’re going to need him to continue to do that.”

As for Week 6, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Giants and Bengals on Sunday night. However, that game isn’t one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 6. You can find those top-tier Week 6 NFL picks at SportsLine.