Thunder vs. Mavericks series prediction, preview: NBA playoffs odds, picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder will have had seven days of rest between games before facing the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals starting on Tuesday. Oklahoma City swept New Orleans and hasn’t played since April 29. 

The Mavericks, on the other hand, will have a much quicker turnaround after defeating the Clippers in six games last Friday.

The last time these teams faced one another was on the final day of the regular season. Oklahoma City won 135-86 at home to clinch the top seed in the conference.

However, it was a meaningless game for the Mavericks, who would have been the fifth seed in the playoffs regardless of the outcome.

As a result, Dallas opted not to play any of its starters in the game. 

While the Thunder ultimately won the season series 3-1, they’re only short favorites at -130, which suggests the bookmakers expect a very competitive series.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Western Conference semifinals

Past performance might not predict future results

When assessing this matchup, you must completely disregard that final regular-season meeting. But even if you limit your scope to the first three games, in which OKC went 2-1, the results don’t necessarily tell the complete picture. 

In their first meeting, the Thunder won 126-120 in Dallas. However, it was a game that Kyrie Irving didn’t play in, with Seth Curry getting the start in his place.

When OKC won the third meeting at home, 126-119, the Mavericks’ best player, Luka Doncic, sat out the game with a sore left hamstring.

It’s worth noting that all three of the Thunder’s best players played in all four games against the Mavericks this season.

Mavericks are a completely different team

The best version of the Mavericks was probably their 146-111 home victory over the Thunder in the second meeting on Feb. 10.

Dallas’ new-look rotation was bolstered by the frontcourt arrivals of power forward P.J. Washington and center Daniel Gafford just two days after the trade deadline.

Both players have been vital to the Mavericks’ improvement this season. Before joining the team, Dallas ranked 22nd in defensive rating (117.2) and 17th with a +0.2 net rating. 

However, since their arrival, the Mavericks’ defensive efficiency improved to eighth (110.5) with the sixth-best net rating at +5.4.

Washington and Gafford give the Mavericks a better opportunity to control games by winning the rebounding battle.

Dallas ranked 25th (41.5 per game) in rebounding before the deadline but improved to sixth (45.4) following their arrival.

Using the same timeline as a guide, we’ve also seen the Mavericks’ improve their scoring inside the paint from 29th (45.5) to 10th (50.8).

As a result, Dallas is far from a team that simply relies on perimeter shots to beat their opponents.

Can Thunder turn the series into a track meet?

In the playoffs, when teams force their opponents to run more half-court sets, you have to have other options for scoring the basketball. 

Oklahoma City is a team that generally likes to play fast. During the regular season, it ranked fifth in tempo with 100.85 possessions per 48 minutes.

However, playing at such a fast pace during the playoffs is difficult when you’re facing the same team over a seven-game series. 

OKC’s pace dropped to 95.88 against the Pelicans in the first round, which could prove problematic when facing a better shooting team.

One of the Mavericks’ strengths is that they’re malleable enough to play at any tempo, fast or slow. 

While the Thunder have had a tremendous season, their ability to push the pace could ultimately decide the winner in this series.

Mavericks vs. Thunder series prediction

This matchup has a solid chance to go the distance, making it worthwhile to swallow the -180 juice and play the series over 5.5 games.

Unfortunately, since neither team is an overwhelming favorite, you won’t find great odds in this series compared to other second-round matchups.

Betting on the NBA?

Thus, to target more of a long shot, our best option might be to try and pick the exact number of games in the series. 

In this instance, we can split a unit wager on the series to end in six games at +195 or seven at +220. 

We’d only need to win one of those wagers to book a profit because of the plus-price. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder series best bets

• Over 5.5 games (-180)
• Series to go six games (+195)
• Series to go seven games (+200)