Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets Wednesday

The Nuggets host the Thunder on Wednesday night in a rematch of their season opener as Denver looks to build on its two-game winning streak. 

While the Nuggets are 4-1 in their last five games, a closer look reveals that they’ve benefited from a softer schedule, with victories over the Raptors (two), Nets and Jazz, three teams with a combined 7-16 record.

They’ll now step up in class against a Thunder team that, at 7-0, has yet to taste defeat. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets odds

Oklahoma City Thunder betting preview

The cat is firmly out of the bag with the Thunder, as they’re no longer the best-kept secret across the NBA landscape. 

In the previous campaign, Oklahoma City won 57 games, going Over its win total of 44.5 while finishing as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

This season, the Thunder opened with a win total of 57.5, and given their hot start, that number looks like a bargain.

OKC managed to keep the core of its roster intact while bringing in Alex Caruso at shooting guard via trade and signing free-agent center Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Caruso and Hartenstein provide the Thunder with elite defending in the backcourt and frontcourt. 

Although the center has yet to feature this season due to a hand injury, OKC’s 93.8 Defensive Rating is more than eight points better than the Warriors, who rank second in the category.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

Like the Thunder, Denver finished with 57 wins in the previous campaign but had to settle for the second seed in the West after losing the head-to-head tiebreaker (3-1) against OKC. 

Unfortunately, their success in the regular season didn’t transfer into the playoffs, as they got somewhat exposed due to their lack of a third superstar and a bench deprived of any real depth.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson, the few bench players the Nuggets could count on, have moved on to other teams.

While Denver hopes to fill that void with Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric, there are still plenty of questions about the overall quality at this stage in their careers.

Westbrook has become one of the league’s worst perimeter shooters. He has shot less than 30% in four of the last five years, and this season’s 20.8% from beyond the arc is a career-worst.

Saric barely gets on the court, averaging 8.8 minutes while playing in five of seven games.

To make matters worse, Denver lost its highly-touted draft pick, DaRon Holmes II, to an Achilles injury in his first Summer League game.

As a result, the Nuggets must rely even more on their three-time MVP, Nikola Jokić, to play more minutes, which could lead to further fatigue down the stretch.

Thunder vs Nuggets pick

Denver has generally been an above-average defensive team because it limits its opponents’ possessions by playing at a slower pace.

Its defensive efficiency is only 0.7 points higher than last year’s, but its offensive rating is down from 117.8 to 114.5.

Those offensive numbers are even more skewed, considering the quality of the opponent in victories over the Raptors, Nets and Jazz.

Betting on the NBA?

Things won’t get any easier Wednesday night, with the Nuggets second-best player, Jamal Murray, ruled out due to a concussion.

Murray’s unavailability resulted in the Thunder moving from a -3.5-point favorite to as high as -7.

Since we’ve missed our chance at getting the better number, I’d recommend a first-half play that gets us back to laying 3.5 with the visitors in a game that the Nuggets should struggle to replace Murray’s production.

Best bet: Thunder 1H ML (-115, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.