Thursday Night Football odds, NFL prediction, spread: Texans vs. Jets picks by Houston expert on 43-30 run

The Week 9 NFL schedule begins with Thursday Night Football as the New York Jets (2-6) host the Houston Texans (6-2) in a primetime battle. The Jets are in a slump and have dropped five straight. Last week, New York lost to the New England Patriots, 25-22. As for the Texans, they defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 23-20, last time out. On the Jets vs. Texans injury report, Houston receiver Stefon Diggs (knee) and Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (neck) have both been ruled out.

Kickoff from MetLife Stadium in New York is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. New York is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Jets odds via SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 43, up one from the opener. Before locking in any Jets vs. Texans picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, considering his mastery of picks involving Houston.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein’s weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He’s also 43-30-4 (+999) on his last 77 ATS NFL picks involving the Texans. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns. 

Now, Hartstein has locked in on Texans vs. Jets and just revealed his coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Jets vs. Texans:

• Texans vs. Jets spread: New York -2.5
• Texans vs. Jets over/under: 43 points
• Texans vs. Jets money line: New York -137, Houston +117
• HOU: Texans are 3-5 against the spread and 3-5 to the Over
• NYJ: Jets are 2-6 ATS and 4-4 to the Over
• Texans vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Texans can cover

Houston’s offense is led by quarterback C.J. Stroud. The 23-year-old is seventh in the NFL in passing yards (1,948) and tied for 10th in passing touchdowns (11). In his last outing, Stroud went 25 of 37 for 285 yards and one passing touchdown. Houston is ranked ninth in the league in total offense (351.4) and eighth in passing offense (232.5).

Running back Joe Mixon has also been a major contributor to the offense. Mixon runs with power and has the contact balance to gain yards after contact. He is 12th in the NFL in rushing yards (503) with 115 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. Mixon has rushed for 100-plus rushing yards in three straight games. In his last outing, he had 102 rushing yards and one touchdown. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Jets can cover

Receiver Garrett Wilson has elevated his game in recent weeks. Wilson has been a consistent playmaker for New York due to crafty route-running and secure hands. The Ohio State product is second in the NFL in receptions (51) and tied for sixth in receiving yards (573) with three touchdowns. In the loss to the Patriots, he finished with five catches for 113 yards.

Running back Breece Hall gives New York a dual-threat weapon in the backfield. Hall thrives in open space and can be tough to bring down. In 2024, the Iowa State product had 428 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards and four total touchdowns. He has finished with 50-plus rushing yards in five games this campaign. He notched 80 rushing yards in Week 8. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Texans vs. Jets picks

Hartstein has analyzed Texans vs. Jets from every possible angle, and while we can tell you he’s leaning Under the total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. Find out what it is, and which team to back, at SportsLine. 

So who wins Jets vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Texans spread to back, all from the expert who is 43-30 on picks involving Houston, and find out.