Virginia Tech vs. Miami prediction: Week 5 CFB odds, picks, best bets

Virginia Tech has been the ACC’s most underwhelming team in non-conference play, while Miami has been the league’s most impressive team.

The two kick-off conference play against each other on Friday night in Miami Gardens. Here’s why I believe the Hokies can cover an inflated spread.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami odds

Virginia Tech vs. Miami prediction

While Miami’s Cam Ward is among the Heisman favorites, he hasn’t played many high-level defenses yet. Obliterating the box score against South Florida, Ball State and Florida A&M doesn’t tell us much. And while their win over Florida was impressive at the time, the Gators have been a dumpster fire since. 

Virginia Tech has also looked lost in the early going, losing outright to Vanderbilt as a two-touchdown favorite and Rutgers as a three-point favorite. 

However, the Hokies still have high-level talent. And I think they match up relatively well with the Hurricanes. 

Ward is incredible, but his biggest issue is handling Havoc and passing under pressure. During his two years at Washington State, he struggled mightily when the pocket collapsed. That could be a problem against Brent Pry’s aggressive, havoc-based defense. 

Behind stud linemen Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 pressures, 10 hurries, four sacks) and Aeneas Peebles (nine pressures, eight hurries, one sack), Virginia Tech ranks 16th nationally in Havoc rate (24%) and fourth nationally in sack rate (12%). 

Pry can be aggressive because he has two excellent cornerbacks, Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane, to play wideouts one-on-one. The Hokies rank in the top 30 nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed and Passing Downs Success Rate allowed. 

Virginia Tech’s rush defense has been the bigger issue. The Hokies have allowed at least 150 rushing yards to all four opponents, including a whopping 240 to Old Dominion. 

But Miami’s offensive strength is through the air. The offensive line grades out well (10th nationally in Line Yards), and top back Damien Martinez was a stud at Oregon State.

Still, the Hurricanes rank in the top eight nationally in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate, compared to outside the top 30 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate. 

I’m still trying to figure out why Virginia Tech is struggling to find a consistent down-to-down offense (ranking 90th in Success Rate) despite an uber-experienced line and an elite dual-threat quarterback in Kyron Drones. 

However, the Hokies have steadily improved their per-rush metrics as the season has progressed, producing single-game highs in Offensive Line Yards per Rush (3.5), EPA per Rush (.23), Rush Success Rate (50%) and Yards per Rush (6.7) last week against Rutgers. 

That might be the key against Miami, which has played excellently in the secondary (ranking fourth in PFF’s Coverage grades and eighth in EPA per Pass allowed) but slightly worse against the rush (30th in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed). 

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Virginia Tech vs. Miami pick

Ultimately, the Hokies have some subtle matchup advantages on Friday, and they might be steadily improving as the weeks pass. 

If they can run the ball on offense while pressuring Ward into mistakes on defense, they should keep it close for 60 minutes.

Pick: Virginia Tech +19.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.