Week 10 NFL picks: Lions to keep rolling in Houston? Will Steelers or Commanders win fourth straight?

Why Tom picked the Vikings: I’m not outright dismissing the Jaguars, who beat the Patriots handily in London and made the Packers and Eagles sweat in Weeks 8 and 9. I’m also not skipping over new Minnesota left tackle Cam Robinson‘s potentially awkward assignment against ex-teammate Josh Hines-Allen and Jacksonville’s pass rush. I just can’t evaluate a game involving the Vikings without trying to imagine how the opposing QB will handle Brian Flores’ notoriously thorny defense, as reductive as that approach might be. The gap between Trevor Lawrence (who is unlikely to play thanks to a shoulder injury, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport) and backup Mac Jones might not actually look all that drastic on paper: Over their careers, the two QBs are quite close in TD rate (3.4 percent for Lawrence, 3.5 for Jones), INT rate (2.2 percent for Lawrence, 2.7 for Jones) and passer rating (85.4 for Lawrence, 85.7 for Jones), and they’ve both averaged 6.8 yards per throw. Jones has actually performed slightly better against the blitz, generating a 77.2 passer rating against five-plus rushers, compared to Lawrence’s mark of 76.2, per Next Gen Stats. Per the ol’ eye test, of course, Lawrence is far superior — and I already was not feeling super confident in him prior to Thursday’s injury news. I am, shall we say, less confident in a backup who hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards or completed more than one TD pass in a game in over a year.