Week 3 NFL player prop picks, predictions: Bucccaneers’ Jalen McMillan poised for breakout

Week 3, we are going to prop it like it’s hot.

We took some long-shot bets in Week 2 and came out 2-3 while coming painfully close on Jerome Ford’s 100+ rushing yards (10/1) prop.

We lost 1.18 units on the week, so we head into Week 3 at 5-4, with a slight profit of 0.52 units.

We’re taking a shot on an unknown Buccaneers receiver with a strong snap rate and route participation.

Week 3 NFL player props picks

Carson Steele under 1.5 receptions (+100, DraftKings)

The Chiefs have a specific running back for passing downs and it’s not Carson Steele. It’s Samaje Perine who will take over all of the passing work for the Chiefs.

Steele isn’t only a non-pass catcher, but he’s a fullback who has received pricely zero targets through two games. Expect the Chiefs to be a little lost in the rushing attack and Perine to get the majority of work while they get Kareem Hunt up to speed.

Jalen McMillan over 25.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) | 70 receiving yards (10/1, DraftKings)

Guess who leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiving corps in snap rate? Not Chris Godwin or Mike Evans but Jalen McMillan, whose 91 snaps are more either of the top two receivers’ marks.

McMillan was 10th in the NFL in aDOT (Average Depth of Target) in Week 2, and the Broncos’ secondary is one of the worst in football.

Two-plus touchdowns is a fine stab at 50/1 on BetMGM, but his 70 receiving yards number is obscene, considering his role as a deep threat in a high-volume offense.

Betting on the NFL?

Josh Allen over 30.5 pass attempts (+100, BetMGM)

Don’t think for a second that the Bills are going to roll over the Jaguars on “Monday Night Football.”

Instead, look for Buffalo to play a bit of catch-up during this “kitchen sink” game for the Jaguars.

While he hasn’t gone over this number yet in 2024, he went over in 11 of 16 games in 2023 with most of the unders being blowout wins (wins by 20 or more) or vs. solid defenses (at Denver, vs. New England).

This one should be competitive enough for Allen to throw a bit more.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.