Wells Fargo first-round leader picks: PGA Tour odds, predictions, best bets

The 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, a signature event that features a loaded field of 68 players and no cut, gets under way on Thursday morning at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, N.C. 

Although Scottie Scheffler is sitting this tournament out, the Wells Fargo has plenty of star power at the top of the board.

Rory McIlroy is the consensus betting favorite, but he’s got plenty of company with Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Max Homa right behind him. 

A tough course and a deep field could make this a tricky tournament for long shots to win, but if you whittle it down to just one round, then the variance increases and you can start to make some cases for some players down the board.

Wells Fargo Championship top-10 first-round leader odds

Wells Fargo Championship first-round leader picks

Denny McCarthy (50/1, BetMGM)

It’s never a bad idea to back Denny McCarthy in this market.

One of the game’s best putters, McCarthy can get white-hot on a moment’s notice, and while it’s difficult to sustain that level over 72 holes, it is a little less daunting to do it for just one round.

McCarthy’s course history at Quail Hollow looked ugly until last year when he not only made the cut for the first time in four tries, but finished T8. 

Shane Lowry (45/1, FanDuel)

There are a couple of reasons to like Shane Lowry across the board this week.

For one, he’s coming into the tournament off a win at the team event in New Orleans two weeks ago.

But more specific for this market is the fact that Lowry has made a habit of getting off to hot starts in 2024; only three players have a better Round 1 scoring average than Lowry this season.

The Irishman has the upside to win this tournament, so I will back him to lead the field after 18 holes. 

I also like his chances to win this tournament at +7000; he’s one of my two favorite long shots in the field.

Betting on golf?

Emiliano Grillo (90/1, BetRivers)

As usual, things have been up and down for Emiliano Grillo in 2024, but the Argentine does have some strong results.

He has made the cut in 10 of the 11 events played on the PGA Tour this season, with two top-10 finishes, including a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March.

He also has a decent course history at Quail Hollow with a T9, T14 and T23 in his last three outings there.