Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston prediction: CFB odds, picks, best bets

Although Western Kentucky won last year’s meeting with Sam Houston, 28-23, Wednesday night’s rematch will look completely different considering the transformation both teams have undergone at quarterback.

Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed moved on to the NFL. T.J. Finley, who spent his first three seasons in the SEC with LSU and Auburn, was the likely candidate to take Reed’s place, but it was Caden Velkamp who won the starting job.

We saw a similar scenario with the Bearkats, as junior college transfer Hunter Watson beat out graduate transfer Grant Gunnell, who began his career at Arizona. Thus, given these changes, both teams have tailored their offenses to fit the skillsets of their quarterbacks.

While each team’s strengths are undoubtedly different, one has a clear edge heading into Wednesday night. 

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston odds

Western Kentucky outlook

After seeing his team throw the ball almost 61% of the time last year, coach Tyson Helton has shown a lesser appetite this season for taking risks as the Hilltoppers are slinging the rock 51.6% of the time in 2024. 

Yet, despite increasing its run-play rate to 48.6%, Western Kentucky still ranks 91st in this category.

Unfortunately, calling more running plays won’t hide the fact that the Hilltoppers struggle to move the ball on the ground.

According to Game on Paper, they rank 111th in rushing with 4.30 yards per carry. 

As a result, WKU averages under 30 minutes in time of possession.  

Converting on third down has been an issue this season, with the Hilltoppers ranking 106th at a conversion rate of 34.3%. 

While its record at 4-2 looks promising, Western Kentucky needs to control the game better, particularly when it faces tougher competition.

Sam Houston outlook

Sam Houston is also transitioning from a pass-happy offense.

The Bearkats ranked 14th (56.9%) in pass-play rate last year, yet they were 90th in explosive plays (receptions of 20 or more yards).

As a result, the offense was relatively inefficient, ranking 121st in Adjusted EPA/Play.

This season, the Bearkats are throwing the ball even less frequently (125th with a pass-play rate of 36.7%) while moving up to 50th in Adjusted EPA/Play.

The Bearkats rank eighth in rushing yards per game (229), allowing them to win the time-of-possession battle by nearly 6.5 minutes.

Through six games, Watson already has 370 rushing yards from the quarterback position, more than his predecessor, Keegan Shoemaker, had throughout al of last year (11 games).

The key for Sam Houston is to get ahead and try to wear down the opponent.

Turnovers have been an issue for the Bearkats since moving up to the FBS level.

Their 13 interceptions were the 26th highest in 2023, and this year, they’re more than halfway to reaching that mark with six games still to play. 

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston pick

As much as Western Kentucky tries to have a more balanced attack, it’s likely to continue to struggle running the ball against Sam Houston.

It’s not that the Bearkats defense is excellent at stopping the run; it’s just that the Hilltoppers offense isn’t particularly good in this area.

On the other hand, we know the Bearkats offense will remain committed to the run against a Western Kentucky team that ranks 85th in opponent yards per carry (5.25).

Betting on College Football?

This is setting up as a classic Pros vs. Joe’s game with public money coming in on Western Kentucky despite bookmakers adjusting the spread in favor of Sam Houston.

Avoid taking the bait with the trendy dog and lay the points with the Bearkats at -2.5.

Best bet: Sam Houston -2.5 (-110, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.