Horse Racing

Which Kentucky Derby 2024 horses are the best mudders? What to know if it rains

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7 months ago

April 30, 2024

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Which Kentucky Derby 2024 horses are the best mudders? What to know if it rains

Surely, the weather will be pristine at Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby 150 — right?

There’s no way it’ll rain on a day meant for celebrating a major milestone for “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” — right?

A few days before the Run for the Roses, the forecast for the first Saturday in May called for partly cloudy skies, a high of 80 degrees and no chance of precipitation around post time, 6:57 p.m.

But that can quickly change in the Ohio Valley.

Per Equibase.com, at least 12 members of the 20-horse field have raced on muddy and/or sloppy tracks.

Weather-specific data for two horses, Forever Young and T O Password of Japan, was not available.

If you’re sent scrambling for a poncho and need help adjusting your Derby bets, here are seven contenders who have had success in the rain:

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone, the Derby points leader, began his 3-year-old campaign in showery conditions Feb. 17 by pulling off a half-length victory over Track Phantom in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. The only time the Chad Brown-trained horse hasn’t won across his four starts was when he finished second by a nose on a muddy track to Dornoch in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct in Queens, New York.

Dornoch

Dornoch is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone; he did so by weathering the aforementioned muddy track at Aqueduct. The Danny Gargan-trained horse also broke his maiden Oct. 14, 2023, at Keeneland amid showery conditions; although the track was described as fast. Less than three months prior, he finished second in a maiden race on a sloppy track at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.

Mystik Dan

Mystik Dan‘s lone trip to the winner’s circle thus far in 2024 came after an 8-length victory Feb. 3 over Just Steel in the Grade 3 Southwest amid showery conditions and a muddy track at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. That’s the only time the Kenny McPeek-trained horse has raced in those conditions; but his performance earned him 20 of his 46 qualifying points for Derby.

Just a Touch

Just a Touch broke his maiden with a 4 1/4-length victory on a sloppy track Jan. 27 at Fair Grounds. In early March, the Brad Cox-trained horse finished second, 2 lengths behind former Derby hopeful Deterministic, in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on a sloppy track at Aqueduct.

Fierceness

It’s been a few months since Fierceness has raced in less-than-favorable conditions. But the Derby’s morning-line favorite broke his maiden with an Aug. 25, 2023, victory on a muddy track at Saratoga. His next start, on Oct. 7, 2023, in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes during the Belmont At The Big A meet, didn’t go so hot. The Todd Pletcher-trained horse finished seventh on a sloppy track.

Society Man

It took Society Man four starts to break his maiden. In his first on a muddy track, in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on Feb. 4 at Aqueduct, he finished eighth. But when the Danny Gargan-trained horse finally got a win March 9, he did so by 3 lengths amid rainy conditions on a muddy track at Aqueduct; and propelled him to a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6.

Track Phantom

Track Phantom has not won a race on a muddy or a sloppy track; but the Steve Asmussen-trained horse finished second by a half-length in both of his starts when that was the case. First was an Oct. 29, 2023, milelong maiden race on a sloppy track at Churchill; then, he fell just shy of Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds.

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.