Connect with us

Horse Racing

Which Kentucky Derby 2024 horses are the best mudders? What to know if it rains

Published

on

Which Kentucky Derby 2024 horses are the best mudders? What to know if it rains

Surely, the weather will be pristine at Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby 150 — right?

There’s no way it’ll rain on a day meant for celebrating a major milestone for “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” — right?

A few days before the Run for the Roses, the forecast for the first Saturday in May called for partly cloudy skies, a high of 80 degrees and no chance of precipitation around post time, 6:57 p.m.

But that can quickly change in the Ohio Valley.

Per Equibase.com, at least 12 members of the 20-horse field have raced on muddy and/or sloppy tracks.

Weather-specific data for two horses, Forever Young and T O Password of Japan, was not available.

If you’re sent scrambling for a poncho and need help adjusting your Derby bets, here are seven contenders who have had success in the rain:

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone, the Derby points leader, began his 3-year-old campaign in showery conditions Feb. 17 by pulling off a half-length victory over Track Phantom in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. The only time the Chad Brown-trained horse hasn’t won across his four starts was when he finished second by a nose on a muddy track to Dornoch in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 2 at Aqueduct in Queens, New York.

Dornoch

Dornoch is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone; he did so by weathering the aforementioned muddy track at Aqueduct. The Danny Gargan-trained horse also broke his maiden Oct. 14, 2023, at Keeneland amid showery conditions; although the track was described as fast. Less than three months prior, he finished second in a maiden race on a sloppy track at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.

Mystik Dan

Mystik Dan‘s lone trip to the winner’s circle thus far in 2024 came after an 8-length victory Feb. 3 over Just Steel in the Grade 3 Southwest amid showery conditions and a muddy track at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. That’s the only time the Kenny McPeek-trained horse has raced in those conditions; but his performance earned him 20 of his 46 qualifying points for Derby.

Just a Touch

Just a Touch broke his maiden with a 4 1/4-length victory on a sloppy track Jan. 27 at Fair Grounds. In early March, the Brad Cox-trained horse finished second, 2 lengths behind former Derby hopeful Deterministic, in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on a sloppy track at Aqueduct.

Fierceness

It’s been a few months since Fierceness has raced in less-than-favorable conditions. But the Derby’s morning-line favorite broke his maiden with an Aug. 25, 2023, victory on a muddy track at Saratoga. His next start, on Oct. 7, 2023, in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes during the Belmont At The Big A meet, didn’t go so hot. The Todd Pletcher-trained horse finished seventh on a sloppy track.

Society Man

It took Society Man four starts to break his maiden. In his first on a muddy track, in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on Feb. 4 at Aqueduct, he finished eighth. But when the Danny Gargan-trained horse finally got a win March 9, he did so by 3 lengths amid rainy conditions on a muddy track at Aqueduct; and propelled him to a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6.

Track Phantom

Track Phantom has not won a race on a muddy or a sloppy track; but the Steve Asmussen-trained horse finished second by a half-length in both of his starts when that was the case. First was an Oct. 29, 2023, milelong maiden race on a sloppy track at Churchill; then, he fell just shy of Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Risen Star on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds.

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

Continue Reading