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Who can get the No. 1 pick? Patriots, Giants, Titans, Browns NFL draft scenarios

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Who can get the No. 1 pick? Patriots, Giants, Titans, Browns NFL draft scenarios

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This time last season, the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft was set. The Carolina Panthers were at least two games behind every other team in the NFL in the win column and had the top selection wrapped up (for the Chicago Bears, that is).

This season is quite different. Four teams enter the final week of the regular season tied for the worst record in the league. The New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants are all 3-13.

New England holds the No. 1 spot entering Week 18. Here’s how each of those four teams could end up with the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft:

How the Patriots can get the No. 1 pick

Of those four teams, the Patriots have the worst strength of schedule at 0.467. That comes in handy for the No. 1 pick if the Patriots are in a tie for the worst record in the NFL like they are entering the season finale.

If New England loses, they keep the No. 1 pick. If they win against a Bills team that may be resting starters, they’d need the other three teams at 3-13 to win as well. They’d then be tied at 4-13 with the rest and earn the No. 1 pick based on that strength of schedule.

How the Titans can get the No. 1 pick

Tennessee is next in line to get the No. 1 pick based on strength of schedule at 0.515. The Titans need a loss to the Texans plus a Patriots win to get the No. 1 pick.

After a 31-2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Houston coach DeMeco Ryans said “everybody has to be ready to go” for the game against Tennessee. That means Houston’s starters could play against Tennessee and improve the Titans’ chances at a loss and the No. 1 pick.

How the Browns can get the No. 1 pick

The Giants’ win over Indianapolis in Week 17 benefitted the Browns more than anyone at the top of the current NFL draft order. Cleveland is the only team of this group whose Week 18 opponent is a playoff team fighting for a division title. The Ravens need a win over the Browns to secure the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Cleveland could get the No. 1 pick by losing to Baltimore plus wins for both New England and Tennessee. Their strength of schedule is second-highest of the group at 0.540.

How the Giants can get the No. 1 pick

New York had the inside track to the top pick this time a week ago. Now, it’s not so clear. The Giants face an Eagles team that will be resting starters in their regular season finale.

New York needs a loss to Philadelphia plus wins by New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland to get the No. 1 pick back. Their strength of schedule is the highest of the group at 0.551, which works against them for getting the No. 1 pick.

Who else can get the No. 1 pick?

There is a logjam of five NFL teams at 4-12 but none of them could get to the No. 1 pick spot. Even if all four of these teams win and the Jacksonville Jaguars — currently in the No. 5 spot — lose, they’d be No. 2 behind New England due to strength of schedule.

If New England, Tennessee, Cleveland, and New York all win, here’s how that could benefit some teams:

  • Jacksonville would go from No. 5 to No. 2 with a loss to Indianapolis
  • Carolina would go from No. 6 to No. 3 with a loss to Atlanta
  • The New York Jets would go from No. 7 to No. 4 with a loss to Miami

2025 NFL Draft order

Here’s the full order for the first round, according to Tankathon.com:

  1. New England Patriots: 3-13 record; .467 strength of schedule
  2. Tennessee Titans: 3-13; .515 SOS
  3. Cleveland Browns: 3-13; .540 SOS
  4. New York Giants: 3-13; .551 SOS
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12; .474 SOS
  6. Carolina Panthers: 4-12; .496 SOS
  7. New York Jets: 4-12; .500 SOS
  8. Las Vegas Raiders: 4-12; .544 SOS
  9. Chicago Bears: 4-12; .555 SOS
  10. New Orleans Saints: 5-11; .507 SOS
  11. San Francisco 49ers: 6-10; .566 SOS
  12. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9; .460 SOS
  13. Dallas Cowboys: 7-9; .518 SOS
  14. Arizona Cardinals: 7-9; .537 SOS
  15. Miami Dolphins: 8-8; .415 SOS
  16. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8; .478 SOS
  17. Atlanta Falcons: 8-8; .518 SOS
  18. Seattle Seahawks: 9-7; .504 SOS
  19. Houston Texans: 9-7; .485 SOS
  20. Denver Broncos: 9-7; .500 SOS
  21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7; .504 SOS
  22. Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6; .467 SOS
  23. Los Angeles Rams: 10-6; .504 SOS
  24. Green Bay Packers: 11-5; .533 SOS
  25. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6; .496 SOS
  26. Washington Commanders: 11-5; .434 SOS
  27. Baltimore Ravens: 11-5; .533 SOS
  28. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-3; .460 SOS
  29. Buffalo Bills: 13-3; .460 SOS
  30. Minnesota Vikings: 14-2; .471 SOS
  31. Detroit Lions: 14-2; .522 SOS
  32. Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1; .487 SOS
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