Who will be the best quarterback to come out of the 2025 NFL Draft?

We all have opinions about who we’d like to see as the New York Giants’ quarterback in 2025. The problem is, we all have biases – in the style of QB play we prefer, in the physical traits we look for, how we value the quality of the opposition he faced and his success he against that opposition, how much emphasis we place on the NFL Combine, and for fans, let’s face it – how he performed in the couple of games that we had the chance to watch out of a college career’s worth of starts.

The other thing not only fans, but also beat writers and professional analysts, do is to obsess about draft order. To look at the comments section of Big Blue View articles, even those not concerned with the draft or the Giants’ quarterback situation, you’d conclude that a funeral was in order after the Giants “ruined” their draft position by defeating the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday. The victory left them on the outside looking in as far as getting Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders goes. Log onto X and you’ll see the same seething among the Giants’ fan community. Of course, you can choose to look at the bright side and imagine a potentially exciting 2025 season anyway:

After Sunday’s loss to the Eagles and New England’s win, the Giants wound up with pick No. 3. That means both Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders could be gone when they pick. That would leave Travis Hunter on the board, which would be a heck of a consolation prize. Regardless, though, there’s a more serious bright side than the scenario envisioned by Matt Harmon. It’s one that I know, and you know, and every fan or professional who pays attention to the NFL knows…yet every year, like clockwork, we all forget about it as we obsess over draft position. Repeat three times:

THE DRAFT IS A CRAPSHOOT

Even professional analysts aren’t immune to biases, but the best of them do a better job than most of us in evaluating quarterback prospects. So let’s look at some of NFL.com’s overview evaluations of prospects, most of them by respected analyst Lance Zierlein, and you’ll have the chance to vote for the player you like the best. I’ve left out the name and redacted any information that might identify the QB to limit the effect your preconceived notions might have on your choice. You’ll have a chance to vote for your favorite below all the overviews; please cast your vote before scrolling down further to see their names.

QB1: (NAME) is this year’s big-time question mark at quarterback. A stellar passer who shows arm strength and accuracy when he is able to deliver the ball without a hitch. He has outstanding football intelligence as he picked up the (COLLEGE) offense in a short time and was the opening-day starter. However, at his height teams will have concerns whether or not he can see to make the throws at the next level. He is a mechanical mover who has strong technique and leadership qualities. If (NAME) were three inches taller there would be debate at the top of the draft as to where he fits in, but look for teams to take a flier on him in late rounds to see if he can develop and outplay his size.

QB2: Will become good starter in two years. One-year starter who dazzled. (NAME) is mature for his age, but will be just (AGE) at the time of the NFL Draft. He’s a rare dual-threat quarterback in that he’s tasked with setting his own protections and reading the full field. Coaches rave about his football IQ and film work. They believe he will come into the league more football savvy than most of the quarterbacks in this draft. Tape shows very average arm strength but velocity should improve with better lower-body drive. While his recognition of coverage danger is a plus, he’s currently more of a “yellow light” quarterback who needs to find a “green light” risk-taking mentality to become a playmaking talent in the NFL. An offensive coordinator willing to blend his run/pass talent with a play-action attack could get the most out of (NAME), who should become a good NFL starter.

QB3: Perennial All-Pro. Refined and polished for his age, (NAME) is the ultimate prototype for today’s brand of franchise quarterback. He has great size. He also possesses elite pocket-passing qualities paired with dual-threat athleticism that makes him an unpredictable weapon on every down if play-callers are willing to expand their playbooks for him. While he’s fairly polished with his approach from the pocket, he has better improvisational talent than many of the quarterbacks who have come up through the quarterback camp circuits from a young age. He has the arm and eyes to make all the throws and to create explosive plays from outside the pocket. There are some areas of concern, though. (NAME)’s poise, decision-making and accuracy all took a hit in (YEAR) when he was forced to work under pressure. His performance against (COLLEGE) showed there is still room for improvement with how he processes his options against the blitz. There were times when he looked encumbered by his play-action-heavy, shotgun offense. Getting away from that system could help him post-snap. He’s generally a smooth operator, with an abundance of experience and tape against high-level competition. (NAME) has an extremely high ceiling and a floor as a very good player who will start for a long time.

QB4: Will eventually be plus starter. Challenging evaluation for quarterback-needy teams balancing traits and potential against disappointing (YEAR) tape. Staff turnover and new starters across the offense are partly to blame for his regression, but self-made flaws in process were also concerns. (NAME)’s accuracy took a step back, and his delayed reaction from “see it” to “throw it” when making reads is troubling. He has the arm to stick throws into tight windows but needs better eye discipline and anticipation to keep windows open. His size, mobility and arm talent combined with his (YEAR) flashes could be a winning hand that leads a team into the future or a siren’s song of erratic play and unfulfilled potential.

QB5: Will eventually be plus starter. (X)-year starting quarterback whose play has matured in front of our eyes. (NAME) displays the accuracy, arm talent and athleticism consistent with today’s brand of pro quarterback. He can be punctual in getting the ball out at the top of his drop or he can work through progressions and beat defenses with second-reaction plays. He throws with good velocity and puts the ball on the money when throwing on the move. (NAME) has shown great improvement with his pocket poise. He’s capable of moving the sticks as a scrambler or as part of the running game. Some of his gaudy production has been driven by the (SCHOOL) offense’s design, but his talent clearly stands out. As the saying goes, “tape don’t lie.” (NAME) appears more than ready to attack the league with an NFL-caliber skill set.

QB6: Will become good starter within two years. Big, talented full-field scanner able to find the right read and sling it around the yard from the pocket or on the move. (NAME) rushed throws in (YEAR), but he showed marked improvement in that area, excluding the (OPPONENT) opener. He trusts his protection while working through coverages and route development and has big-boy arm talent and drive velocity to stress and impress defenses. He’s confident attacking downfield, but touch throws evade him and may have created tentativeness with certain short and intermediate throws. Ball placement requires additional emphasis, but upgrading to NFL skill talent could help him bloom. (NAME) has a high ceiling and is the most physically gifted quarterback in the draft, but he doesn’t have as many “wow” plays as expected for someone with his traits, experience and potential.

QB7: Good backup with the potential to develop into starter. Like Tim Tebow, (NAME) is a winning dual-threat quarterback known for his strength, toughness and character. (NAME) is a more accurate passer and better runner than Tebow but is inconsistent as a decision-maker and tends to break the pocket when throws are there to be made. His deep-ball touch and intermediate accuracy improved this year so teams may see him as a developmental talent who will keep getting better in the right scheme. He’ll struggle to beat NFL defenses from the pocket, but his ability to grind out yards on the ground and make off-schedule plays should make him a solid backup with upward mobility.

QB8: Boom or bust potential. Challenging evaluation with top-flight measurables and tools but inconsistencies that create a lower floor. (NAME)’s size and arm talent jump off the tape immediately. He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that get crowds (and evaluators) on their feet. He leaves too many throws on the back shoulder or hip and needs to learn when to take some sauce off the throw to make it more catchable. There is an undeniable energy to (NAME)’s game that can create momentum or turn chaotic when plays come off-schedule for him. The combination of traits and tape make him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.

QB9: Pro Bowl talent. (NAME) is a high-end quarterback prospect who possesses NFL size, a big arm and the ability to throw with accuracy from the pocket or on the move. Despite playing in a spread-based offense, he’s a full-field reader who does a very good job of getting an early read on the safeties before crafting his course of action. (NAME) will have to become much more pocket aware and do a better job of recognizing and attacking blitzes to back NFL defensive coordinators off. He hasn’t put all the pieces together yet, but the puzzle is all right in front. (NAME) projects as a good starting quarterback with a high floor and the potential to be great.

QB10: Priority free agent. Was never able to improve upon a stellar sophomore campaign. (NAME) is a burly pocket quarterback who needs a play-action based offense where he can rely on timing over release quickness and arm strength. He can be a confident passer when he finds his rhythm, but throwing is more of a chore than a talent thanks to a labored release. Certain areas of the field will be off limits as he moves up to take on NFL coverage talent. He’s a scrappy runner but not dynamic enough to make up for his shortcomings as a passer.

OK, now vote for the prospect of your choice (don’t look below until you’ve voted):

And here are the names of the prospects:

QB1: Russell Wilson
QB2: Trey Lance
QB3: Trevor Lawrence
QB4: Jordan Love
QB5: Bo Nix
QB6: Justin Herbert
QB7: Jalen Hurts
QB8: Drake Maye
QB9: Mitchell Trubisky
QB10: Brock Purdy

Giants fans can be grouped into a few different camps: Those who think all is lost if the Giants don’t pick No. 1 or No. 2 so they can get Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders; those who think neither of them are worth drafting that high; those who think taking a flier on one of the other QBs on Day 2 (or trading back into the bottom of Round 1) would make sense; and those who just want to wait for Arch Manning.

The thing is, all of you are right and all of you are wrong. We just don’t know. I’ve cherry-picked the prospects I included in the poll to have No. 1, 2, and 3 picks who have disappointed, later Day 1 picks who have surprised, and Day 2 or later picks who have amazingly become good to great NFL QBs. My cherry-picked list is not biased, though. Here are the ESPN QBR (total quarterback rating) rankings for all starting NFL QBs this year who have averaged at least 20 snaps per game plotted against where they were drafted:

QBR isn’t perfect but it is one of the best metrics around because it combines expected points added by the QB with context such as the quality of defense faced, whether a pass occurred in a strategically important part of the game or in garbage time, etc. At the moment the QBR rankings are led by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Jayden Daniels (oops, sorry to remind you of the guy the Giants didn’t get to draft because Tommy DeVito won three games last season). The bottom four are, from worst upward, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Cooper Rush, and…the No. 1 draft pick, Caleb Williams.

What the plot above makes clear is that within the first two rounds, there is absolutely no relationship between where a QB is drafted and how he performs in the NFL.

“Oh, but your chances are better if you draft high or if you can trade up and ‘get your guy’ that you have a strong conviction about.“ No, they’re not.

We all know this is true. Not only Lance (a No. 3 pick) and Trubisky (a No. 2 pick), both of them the result of trade-ups, to add insult to injury. We have Zach Wilson, Bryce Young (another trade-up), and Caleb Williams, just within the past four drafts, as other examples of very high picks who have struggled in the NFL. On the flip side, we have Brock Purdy, that lone red dot in the upper left corner, who has almost won a Super Bowl and whose talents of anticipation, reading defenses, and accuracy went unnoticed – even by Zierlein. Russell Wilson lasted until Round 3 because teams were fixated on his height, and he may make the Hall of Fame. Jalen Hurts was considered a backup with starter potential, yet he became a starter before the end of his first season and he too almost won a Super Bowl. Of the six top prospects in the 2024 draft, the one that most people had ranked last, Bo Nix, has his team in the playoffs as a rookie. The favorite for NFL MVP this year, Lamar Jackson, was drafted No. 32…after the Ravens passed on him at No. 25 to draft tight end Hayden Hurst instead. Of the top 12 QBs in QBR this season, five were drafted late in the first round or later. About one-third of the quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 are in the bottom half of the QBR rankings.

The bottom line is this: Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders may in fact be the best quarterbacks in the next draft, but they may not. If one is there at No. 3, take a chance. If not, just get a QB in Round 2 or trade back into the first round to get one of the others. They may work out, they may not. Jalen Milroe? He didn’t look great against Michigan’s second-string defense. On the other hand, Joe Milton, a late-round afterthought in the 2024 draft, balled out on Sunday to help the Patriots win. Jaxson Dart? He didn’t impress all that much during the season, and then he looked great in his bowl game. Until they get to the NFL, you just don’t know.

The most important thing for the Giants is to try. Draft some quarterback in some round. That’s been a blind spot for Joe Schoen. The key is to have a solid bridge quarterback already under contract, as Matt Harmon jokingly suggests, so that the 2025 season does not hinge on a complete unknown…which every rookie quarterback is.