Why the Giants Will Beat the Carolina Panthers, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

We’ve reached the point in the 2024 season when, instead of potentially discussing whether a win by the New York Giants gives them a competitive advantage over a postseason berth, we are instead discussing who gets a better draft spot.

Welcome to Week 10, when the Giants and Panthers, both 2-7, have reached the point where they’re playing for pride. Their respective seasons are circling the drain.

The Giants are favorited to win his game by 6.5 points–the first time they’ve been favored to win a game this season—and have won the last two meetings against the Panthers by scores of 25-3 (2021) and 19-16 (2022). 

If you’re looking for more good news for a potential Giants win, they are 3-0 in games outside the United States.

All that aside, the Giants are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which is tied for their longest losing streak under head coach Brian Daboll, which was set last season (Weeks 3-6). 

A loss to the Panthers on Sunday will not only give the Giants their longest losing streak under Daboll, but it will also set up an interesting two weeks as the Giants have a bye after this game. 

Would team co-owner John Mara, who last month said he didn’t anticipate making any changes at head coach or general manager, have a change of heart? Certainly, if the team loses to Carolina, someone will have to fall on the sword for a season that, just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does. 

I’m almost reluctant to say this because when I’ve written this before about an opposing team’s defense being ranked at or near the bottom of the league in a stat, the Giants come along and make things right for that unit (see Week 4 against Dallas).

But not this time. 

The Panthers have the league’s worst run defense, allowing 159.3 rushing yards per game (32ns) and 4.55 rushing yards per attempt (20th). 

The Giants’ rushing offense isn’t a top-10 unit, but it has perked up since Tyrone Tracy, Jr became RB1. New York averages 114.7 yards per game, 19th, and 4.34 rushing yards per attempt (20th). 

Tracy is averaging 5.0 yards per rushing attempt, tied for sixth among NFL running backs with a minimum of 80 rushing attempts. He has also averaged 5.86 yards per rushing attempt over his last two games, with one rushing touchdown.  

Per NextGen Stats, Tracy has generated the two highest games of rushing yards over expected (Week 5: +47 & Week 8 +36) and two of the three lowest games of RYOE (Week 6: -21 & Week 9: -23) among Giants running backs this season. He has been at his best on runs between the tackles, where he has averaged 5.8 yards per carry, versus runs outside the tackles, where his average is 3.2 yards per carry. 

If we’re talking about the Giants’ running game, we might as well throw quarterback Daniel Jones into that equation. It was surprising to learn that, per NextGen Stats, 48.3% of Jones’s rushes have been on designed runs, the highest share of his career and an increase of 20.8% from last season.

On those designed runs (29 total), Jones has 154 yards, a touchdown, and more yards than expected on 63.0% of those runs, the second highest among quarterbacks with at least ten designed rushing attempts.  

With Darius Slayton out of the lineup and the Panthers likely to blanket Malik Nabers, if the Giants can get their running game going to where second and third downs are manageable, that will open many more options.

Defensively, don’t believe outside linebacker Brian Burns when he tries to downplay this as just another game. Burns has a favorable matchup against Brady Christiansen, who is filling in for Ickey Ekwonu at left tackle.

Last week against the Saints, Christensen allowed four quarterback pressures, his season-high. Burns, meanwhile, has a 12.7% pass-rush win rate and a 15.6% win rate out of a true pass set. 

If Burns and friends can play a big role in rattling Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, who has completed just 37.5% of his pass attempts under pressure (second-worst completion percentage among 36 quarterbacks who have faced pressure on at least 40 of their dropbacks), that will go a long way toward a winning effort.  

I will go for the same reason why I think the Giants can win: the run game. Only this time, I’m looking squarely at the Panthers’ running game as led by newly extended Chuba Hubbard, who, despite being part of a Panthers rushing offense that has averaged 101.3 yards per game (25th) and 4.41 yards per carry (16th), has the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL (665) and the eighth-most rushing first downs (33).

That’s not good news for a Giants run defense allowing 142.6 rushing yards per attempt (28th) and 5.19 rushing yards per attempt (32nd), which has missed 43 run-game tackles.

Want another reason to be concerned? The Giants shook up their offensive line at tackle. They will move Jermaine Eluemunor from right tackle to left tackle and insert Evan Neal in at right tackle, the latter making his 2024 debut as a starter.

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has fared just a smidge better than Young, his counterpart this week, when under pressure. Jones has completed 46.3% of his pass attempts, which is 13th among the 36 quarterbacks with a minimum of 40 dropbacks facing pressure. 

The Giants have the league’s worst red zone offense, converting just 40% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. The Panthers’ defense is tied for 27th worst in the league, allowing almost 70% of opposing red zone visits to be converted into touchdowns.  

The problem with the red zone has been it’s too predictable. Receiver Wan’Dale Robinson has been the favorite target in the red zone, catching five of eight pass targets with two touchdowns. 

Robinson is followed by Malik Nabers, who has caught three of five pass targets, resulting in touchdowns.

If there were a week for the Giants to throw in a wrinkle and get their tight ends more involved in the red zone passing game, this would be it. New York’s tight ends have caught one of two pass targets, the one reception good for a touchdown (Chris Manhertz). 

I mention this because this game will come down to whoever has greater success in the red zone. And if the Giants, putrid offense and all, can’t beat the Panthers in this area, I don’t see this team winning another game this season.   

Giants 23, Panthers 19

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