Why the Giants Will Beat the Commanders, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

The New York Giants had themselves a bad game last week against the Minnesota Vikings, there’s no denying that nor is there any chance of stuffing the toothpaste back into the tube.

But if there was ever a flash of hope that the team can get back on track, this week’s opponent, the Washington Commanders, a team that, regardless of the head coach or quarterback, the Giants have handled of late.

That’s a good thing for head coach Brian Daboll, whose team took a good old-fashioned 28-6 beating last week against the Minnsota Vikings, who clearly looked like the more prepared team.

This week the Giants get to see quarterback Jayden Daniels, a player whom Daboll said he’d trade up for in the draft as was shown on Hard Knocks. Daboll gushed about Daniels this week when he was asked about the rookie.

For all the work Daboll and the Giants did on Daniels, it will be interesting to see if it provides any sort of competitive edge.

“There are cut ups that I’ve made that I can refer to or go back and talk with the defensive staff about. There’s a little bit more time on some other things, but I put a lot of work into that,” he said. 

“Again, he’s played in one game in a regular season, so we’ll use that. It’s really more about us and how we do things.”

Why The Giants Will Win

The biggest potential mismatch in this game which favors the Giants is their receivers against a banged up (and underperforming) Commanders defensive secondary, which after allowing 280 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs last week, rank 29th. 

Last year’s first round pick, Emmanuel Forbes, who has struggled since being drafted, will miss the game after undergoing surgery on his thumb. Last week, he gave up all three of the pass targets against him for 38 yards, an average of 12.7 yards per catch. It’s anticipated that Noah Igbinoghene will get the start in Forbes’s place. 

On the other side, Benjamin St-Juste was equally bad, allowing six of eight pass targets to get by him for 53 yards and two touchdowns.

This all sets the stage nicely for a Giants passing game featuring Malik Nabers, who is expected to go despite some mid-week knee soreness, Wan’Dale Robinson, and the Jalin Hyatt/Darius Slayton duo to make some big plays–that is, if quarterback Daniel Jones can shake off last week’s uninspiring performance and get back to taking more shots down the field.

This week would also be a good one for the Giants’ highly touted pass rushing duo of Brian Burns and KAyvon Thibodeaux to start making some noise. The Commanders starting tackles, Andrew Wylie and Cornelius Lucas, combined for four pressures allowed last week, with Wylie, the team’s starting right tackle, having one of the lowest pass-blocking efficiency percentages (95.6) on the Commanders offensive line. 

Burns and Thiubodeaux better show up hungry and ready to eat this week because they have a favorable matchup before them.

Why The Giants Will Lose 

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones insists that his confidence hasn’t taken a hit, that he’s determined to work through his issue.s The problem is his body language suggests otherwise.

Despite having not missed a snap in the summer, Jones looked jittery in the backfield and appeared to struggle with post-snap decision making, an on-going problem for him. He has shown little feel for being in the pocket and it’s widely suspected that when the team is struggling, he feels the pressure to make the plays which results in him trying to force balls into ill-advised, tight windows.

Although Jones has done well historically against Washington, remember he’s now facing a Dan Quinn defense which for the last three years when Quinn was at Dallas, flummoxed him. If Jones struggles again this week–and let’s hope he doesn’t as that will toss the team into further turmoil–it will be interesting to see if head coach Brian Daboll gives him the quick hook.

Beyond Jones, a matchup to keep an eye on here is Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin vs. Giants cornerback Deonte Banks. Last week Banks gave up three of five targets against him, two to Justin Jefferson (who had a drop in his five targets) and one to Aaron Jones, for 56 yards, 14 yards after catch. 

Two of the three completions allowed resulted in first downs and one went for a touchdown (Jefferson). That’s not exactly a stellar showing  and two of the three resulting in first dows. . Despite what the numbers said last week, Banks had his hands full with Justin Jefferson.

The good news is that last year, Banks handled McLaurin, the Commanders’ top receiver,so there is a precedent there. The fly in the ointment though could be if the Commanders try to get McLaurin against Cor’Dale Flott, who is expected to get the start opposite of Banks with Nick McCloud sidelined this weekend.

Prediction

I know, new year, different coaching staff, different team, and all that jazz. But the Giants haven’t let that stop them before, and I can’t see that changing now, even though last week’s showing against the Vikings still leaves a sour taste in one’s mouth. The pressure is on the Giants to right the ship this week in a game they should win; if they don’t, if you thought things last week were ugly, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Giants 23, Commanders 17