Why the Giants Will Beat the Cowboys, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

Things in the land of the New York Giants have to start getting better soon, right?

Right? Right? Bueller?

Maybe not. The New

But there are some reasons to be optimistic, even as the season continues to crumble down around the Giants at an alarming pace. 

We can start with the fact that the Cowboys, like the Giants, are winless at home this season. 

And not only are they winless, per NextGen Stats, they have a -118 point differential at home, which is the third-worst point differential in a team’s first five home games in league history.

Good thing then for Dallas that the Giants are only averaging a league-last 14.8 points per game, right? Well, yes and no. The Giants have been much better on the road than they’ve been at home, averaging 20.6 points per game on the road versus just 10 points at home.

(Hey, it’s something.)

We can also say that the schedule makers probably weren’t expecting this game to feature Cooper Rush and Drew Lock (assuming the injured Tommy DeVito doesn’t play) at quarterback, which will be the case.

And certainly the schedule makers weren’t expecting the Giants and Cowboys to be battling it out for last place in the NFC East, which is also currently the case.

This game has all the makings to be the worst of the three on the Thanksgiving Day slate. But then again, something funky happens when these two divisional opponents get together.

Will that again be the case or will the Giants, who probably need the win more than the Cowboys at this point, botch the game so badly that jobs are lost?

Tune in to find out.

(Note: Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics are via NextGen Stats.)

I know what you’re probably thinking: the Giants can’t beat the Dak PRescott-less Cowboys, snapping Dallas’s seven-game winning streak over them in games played in AT&T Stadium. 

After all, the Giants are looking at potentially having their third quarterback in the last three games if Tommy DeVito’s forearm injury is worse than thought, causing him to be inactive. 

They’ll also be missing Jermaine Eluemunor at left tackle, which likely means Chris Hubbard, who has struggled to protect the quarterback’s blindside, will be in the lineup.

Doesn’t look good, right? But if you’re looking for the tiniest sliver of a silver lining, know that the Cowboys aren’t exactly setting the league on fire. They’ve been a turnover machine–their 21 giveaways are second behind the Las Vegas Raiders. 

(Of course, it would be nice if the Giants actually could create more than the nine takeaways–including just one interception–they currently have. But I digress!)

The Cowboys have also had a tackling problem. They’ve missed a league-high 31 tackles (per Pro Football Focus data) over their last four games.

But if you are looking for more concrete data, the Giants running backs could be called upon to carry the offense while the coaches figure out the quarterback situation for the rest of the year. 

Giants ball carriers have averaged 1.6 yards before contact, third most in the league. Rookie Tyrone Tracy, Jr. is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, sixth most among running backs with at least 100 carries.  

If the running backs can hang onto the ball–They’ve had six lost fumbles this season, Tracy having two in his last two games–that will take a big-time load off the offense. 

The Giants enter this game against a Cowboys defense that is getting healthy again. And that’s not good news for the team’s offensive line, which will be fielding its sixth unique lineup this season thanks to left tackle Jermaine Eluemunor being declared out with a quad injury suffered last week.

That means the Giants, one of two teams that, per NextGen Stats, to have four different players log at least 50 snaps at left tackle (Andrew Thomas, Chris Hubbard, Eluemunor, and Joshua Ezeudu) are likely going back to Hubbard, who is not an NFL left tackle (he’s been a career right tackle).

Last week against the Bucs, Hubbard came into the game early when Eluemunor suffered his quad injury. Hubbard, who has a team-high 21.6% pressure rate for the season, then allowed a team-high seven pressures in his 39 pass-blocking snaps.  

Again, that’s not good news for Drew Lock, who is expected to get the start on the injured DeVito.

Defensively, the Giants come into this game at a disadvantage because they’ve struggled to defend passes of 10+ yards thrown outside the numbers. 

The Giants have allowed a league-high 66.7% completion rate and six touchdowns on such passes. With cornerback Deonte Banks questionable for the game, things can get ugly for the Giants’ pass defense.  

The Giants desperately need to win, but at this point, I just don’t think they have the firepower to pull off the upset. I just hope that if they do indeed lose, the game is competitive and close to where the Giants don’t end up looking like turkeys.

Cowboys 23, Giants 14