Yankees vs. Astros prediction: MLB odds, picks, bets for Tuesday

After sweeping the Tigers at home over the weekend, the 23-13 Yankees will host the Houston Astros for another three-game Yankee Stadium set. 

The ‘Stros have yet to work out of their early-season slump, sitting at 12-22 on the year after losing a home series to Seattle this past weekend. 

However, Houston’s problems have mainly been on the mound, and Justin Verlander hopes he can help alleviate some of those issues as he makes his fourth start of 2024. 

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction

(7:05 p.m. ET, TBS)

The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer has made three reasonably good starts, allowing only four earned runs across 17 ⅓ innings. 

However, I think he’s been mostly lucky. 

Verlander boasts an uber-low BABIP (.239) and an uber-high strand rate (93%), two numbers that should regress toward MLB averages (.300 and 72%), leading to plenty of more earned runs. 

His underlying profile still leaves much to be desired.

His strikeout rate is down (19%), his walk rate is up (10%) and his ground-ball rate has plummeted (32%), leading to a mostly pedestrian batted-ball profile. 

I believe Verlander is overvalued entering Tuesday’s start, partially explained by the difference between his actual indicators (2.08 ERA, 4.35 FIP) and expected ones (3.82 xERA, 4.70 xFIP). 

Meanwhile, Luis Gil is technically undervalued by his expected indicators (3.19 ERA, 2.29 xERA), mainly because he’s a strikeout machine behind a lively upper-90s fastball (40 strikeouts in 31 innings this season). 

However, Gil’s questionable command and control of his electric arsenal (20 walks, 93 Location+ mark) could bite him against the ever-disciplined Astros (17% strikeout rate, lowest among MLB lineups; 10% swinging-strike rate, third).

Gil wants to miss bats and the Astros won’t make poor swing decisions. 

Both these lineups are top-notch. Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank fourth in wRC+ (120), while the Astros rank eighth (108). 

Between two elite lineups and two questionable pitchers, I’m banking on a higher-scoring ballgame on Tuesday night in the Bronx.

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Juan Soto could take advantage of fly-ball Verlander with the short porch in right field, while Yordan Alvarez might draw four walks against Gil.  

I’m a little scared of these two rested bullpens. But while New York’s relievers have been lights out (2.27 ERA, first among MLB bullpens), Houston’s has been a disaster (4.44 ERA, 21st), so late-game run production won’t be entirely out of the cards. 

I’ll bet the Over 8.5 (-112) available at FanDuel, a number that’s slowly ticked up since the markets opened. 

Astros vs. Yankees Pick

Over 8.5 (-112, FanDuel)