Yankees vs. Astros prediction, odds: Fade Marcus Stroman in series finale

I’m a tad worried about Marcus Stroman, who will pitch for the Yankees on Thursday against Houston. 

He has pitched to an OK 3.41 ERA across his first seven starts in pinstripes, but the Stuff+ marks across his arsenal are down (101 in 2023, 94 in 2024), and he’s been increasingly erratic, with his Location+ metric decreasing six points from last year (100 to 94) and his walk rate doubling from two years ago (6 percent to 12 percent). 

Stroman’s a sinker-baller and his sinker is still working, hence why he’s forcing a 57 percent ground-ball rate.

However, none of his secondary offerings are generating enough strikes, bringing his overall zone rate down seven points year over year (38 percent to 31 percent). 

The Astros’ lineup is among the most disciplined in MLB, boasting the league’s lowest strikeout rate (17 percent), fourth-lowest swinging strike rate (10 percent) and highest zone-contact rate (88 percent).

You’re in trouble if you can’t throw strikes against them. 

Conversely, Thursday’s opposing starting pitcher, Ronel Blanco, is worth buying.

He’s inducing plenty of swinging strikes from his changeup and cutters, earning a 2.09 ERA and 2.48 expected ERA through his first six starts this year. 

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It’s tough fading the Yankees’ red-hot, hard-hitting offense, and it’s equally tough fading their borderline-elite bullpen.

But the Astros have a starting pitching advantage Wednesday, and their bullpen has been pitching much better lately, posting a 2.88 ERA over the past two weeks. 

The play: Astros moneyline (+118, FanDuel Sportsbook)