Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 5 prediction: World Series odds, picks, best bets

The Yankees will continue their quest to become the first team to win the World Series after being down three games to none Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. 

Jack Flaherty will face Gerrit Cole in a rematch of Friday’s thrilling series opener. 

The Yankees are priced at roughly -150 odds to win this matchup, the same price they were in Game 4.

When Cole battled Flaherty in Game 1, the Dodgers were priced as -125 favorites, so the price adjustment for this matchup is beyond the typical amount offered for home-field advantage. 

Dodgers vs Yankees Odds

Dodgers vs Yankees Prediction

(8:08 p.m. ET, FOX)

None of the Dodgers’ highest-leverage relievers pitched in Tuesday’s matchup and Flaherty was arguably better than expected in Game 1.

If anything, those factors might suggest a closer price for Wednesday’s matchup. 

There are some concerns surrounding Flaherty, and it looks like oddsmakers are buying into that narrative based on the prices. The Yankees are an even larger favorite to win the first five innings (-155).

Flaherty pitched on a full week of rest in Game 1 and was also effective pitching on extra rest in Game 1 of the NLCS. Sandwiched between those starts was a horrible outing on the road at Citi Field on regular rest. 

Flaherty’s last two pitches of Game One were an 88.8-mph fastball prior and a meatball that allowed a home run. After the game, reports revealed he was dealing with hamstring tightness. 

Flaherty has allowed a 41% hard-hit rate and .273 expected batting average with a meager 10% strikeout minus walk rate over his past 10 starts, pitching to a 4.70 ERA during the stretch.

Conversely, Cole has posted a 2.88 ERA and 14% strikeout minus walk rate across his past 10 starts, while holding opponents to a .188 average.

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The Dodgers rotation is chock-full of right-handed pitchers, which works in the Yankees’ favor. The Bronx Bombers are the best lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching (120 wRC+) but were more mortal against southpaws (107 wRC+).

Will the Yankees offense get a spark from Tuesday’s big offensive breakout?

It’s possible. While it was pretty irrelevant then, Aaron Judge had to feel good after recording just his second hit of the series.

If the Yankees can find a way to send this series back to Los Angeles, chances are it means they took advantage of Flaherty early on and received a solid start from Cole because all of the Dodgers’ high-leverage arms should be ready to work. 

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Dodgers vs Yankees Pick

I’m betting on the narrative.

A broad sample of work suggests Cole is still far superior to Flaherty, and these offenses grade out more comparably in the splits relative to this matchup.

Pick: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-106, FanDuel) | Play to -0.5 (-110)