Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 5 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends, and stats

For the second straight night in the ALCS the game was decided in the final inning. On Friday night, the Yankees again smacked Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase, but after scoring twice in the top of the ninth they kept the Guardians off the scoreboard and won 8-6. New York now has a stranglehold on the series leading 3 games to 1.

As has often been the case in this series, the Yankees jumped on mistakes by the Guardians. In the ninth, Alex Verdugo served up a double play grounder to Brayan Rocchio but the young shortstop booted it allowing the go ahead run to score. Gleyber Torres followed with an RBI single to provide the final run for New York.

Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton provided the bulk of the offense for the Yankees with home runs in the first and sixth innings respectively. Stanton now has 9 RBIs in the playoffs to lead New York.

Cleveland must find a way to pick itself up and get back in the series or their season ends today. Game 5 is tonight at Progressive Field. Carlos Rodon starts for the Yankees and Tanner Bibee gets the ball for the Guardians.

Lets dive a little deeper into Game 5 and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first-pitch, projected pitching matchup, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Yankees @ Guardians – Game 5

● Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
● Time: 8:08 PM ET
● Site: Progressive Field
● City: Cleveland, OH
● TV/Streaming: TBS, TruTV, MAX

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

ALCS Game 5 odds for Yankees @ Guardians

The latest odds as of Saturday morning:

● Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians (+100), New York Yankees (-120)
● Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-175), Yankees -1.5 (+145)
● Total: 7.5

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Probable starting pitchers for New York @ Cleveland

● Saturday’s pitching matchup (October 19): Carlos Rodon vs. Tanner Bibee

○ Guardians: Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) – lost to the Yankees in Game 2 giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits while getting just 4 outs.

○ Yankees: Rodon (1-1, 4.66 ERA) – defeated the Guardians in Game 1 with a masterful 6 inning performance giving up 3 hits and a single run while striking out 9.

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of ALCS Game 5: Yankees @ Guardians

· Teams winning the first two games of a best of seven series have gone on to win the series 83.5% of the time.

· Each of the 4 ALCS games have gone OVER the Total.

· The Yankees are 4-4 ATS in the postseason.

· Giancarlo Stanton homered every 15.4 ABs during the regular season. He is averaging one home run every 7.5 ABs in the playoffs in 2024.

· Stanton average 1 RBI every 5.8 ABs in the regular season. He is averaging 1 RBI every 3.33 ABs.

· The Guardians are 3-6 ATS and 6-3 to the OVER this postseason.

· New York and Cleveland have met in the playoffs 6 times: 1997, 1998, 2007, 2017, 2020, and 2022. The Yankees 4 of the 6 series including the most recent series – the 2022 ALDS 3 games to 2. Overall, the Yankees are 16-12 against Cleveland in the playoffs.

Playoff Histories for Cleveland and New York

• Guardians: Cleveland has an all-time record of 64-63. They have appeared in the World Series 6 times – 1920, 1948, 1954,1995, 1997, and 2016 – and lost 6 times.
• Yankees: The Yankees are looking to claim their 41^st AL Pennant. New York has won 27 World Championships. Their last World Series victory was in 2009. They have been to the playoffs 57 times.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Game 5 of the ALCS between Cleveland and New York

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s Game 5 between the Guardians and the Yankees:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline
• Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Run Line
• Total Runs: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the OVER of 7.5 Total Runs

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!

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· Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
· Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
· Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)