Yankees vs. Guardians Game 2 pick, odds: ALCS predictions, best bets Tuesday

We watched Yankees pitching stymie Guardian bats in Game 1 of the ALCS, accruing 14 total strikeouts — nine of which belonged to Carlos Rodon in a noble six-inning start.

As the ball is passed to Gerrit Cole for Tuesday’s follow-up at Yankee Stadium, I’m not expecting the same volume from the Bombers’ ace. 

Cole’s velocity took a hit after he returned to the rotation in June following rehab from elbow inflammation that kept him on the injured list for 75 games. It took some time for him to stabilize his pitch count and overall command, and while he delivered 10 starts with six strikeouts or more, the consistency of his pitch execution hasn’t been what it was in years’ past. 

Cole’s strikeout per nine rate regressed for the third consecutive season to 9.38.

Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 2 odds

His triumph against Kansas City showcased only four strikeouts, but it was Cole’s ability to maneuver the strike zone effectively to allow zero walks that helped pace him through seven innings.

Cole avoided power zones masterfully, even if he is keeping the ball in play with ground balls and fly outs, letting his defense mop up behind him. 

The Royals finished with the second-fewest strikeouts; Cleveland struck out the fourth-fewest. 

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Cole shushed the Guardians to one hit in six innings of work in the Yankees’ 6-0 win on August 22, but he only struck out two. 

This common notion that the Yankees have a red carpet leading them into the World Series does hold some merit considering their ice-cold Statcast profile, reflecting a dead-last standing in almost every advanced contact statistic — most notably MLB’s weakest team exit velocity. 

But despite how much the Yankees overshadow them in power hitting, the Guardians have survived until this point with stubborn plate discipline.

Cleveland swung-and-missed at a 23 percent rate — the fifth-lowest percentage — all while striking contact on 83.5 of pitches distributed in the strike zone, per Statcast. 

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Even if Cole flirts with the outside, his chase rate stooped to a pedestrian bottom 66 percentile and the Guardians made contact with 60.5 pitches that they chased. 

The public is fawning over the Yankees to win Game 2 with 97 percent of the handle on them. That kind of love leans me towards Cleveland’s potential to make outs a bit tougher for Cole in early frames.  

THE PLAY: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.