Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 predictions: ALCS picks, odds, bets

The Cleveland Guardians fell short in their quest to knot up the ALCS at two games apiece. 

After rallying from a 6-2 deficit to level the score in Game 4, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio failed to cleanly field an Alex Verdugo ground ball in the top of the ninth, leading to a Jon Berti run.

Gleyber Torres then hit a single to drive in Anthony Volpe and give the Yankees an 8-6 lead.

Tommy Kahnle came on to pitch the bottom of the ninth and worked out of danger with two runners on and one out to close the game.

With the Yankees just one win away from the World Series, they’ll turn to Carlos Rodón on the mound to start Game 5, while the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee.

However, Cleveland’s decision to start Bibee isn’t without risk, as he’ll be pitching on short rest for the first time in his major league career.

Yankees outlook

Rodón showed his worth in the series opener, limiting the Guardians to just one run on three hits in six innings.

It was an excellent bounce-back effort after he allowed four runs in 3 ⅔ innings against the Royals in the divisional round.

The Yankees will undoubtedly hope for plenty more from the 10-year veteran now that he’s picked up his first postseason win.

Nonetheless, this is a matchup that Rodón has particularly thrived in dating back to his days in the AL Central as a member of the White Sox.

In 21 games, the southpaw boasts a 2.81 ERA while limiting the Guardians to a .214 batting average and a .275 weighted on-base average (wOBA).

And if we just focus on this current Guardians roster, they’re hitting .193 with a .256 wOBA in 92 plate appearances against Rodón. 

He did a tremendous job using his fastball to get ahead of Cleveland’s hitters before turning to his slider as a putaway pitch.

Rodón’s slider will continue to be a key weapon for him against the Guardians, and according to FanGraphs, it’s a pitch they’ve performed the worst against (-19.8 runs below average) all season.

Guardians analysis

The Yankees gave Bibee a rude welcome in Game 2, scoring three runs on five hits in 1 ⅓ innings of work.  

While Bibee pitched well in the division series against the Tigers, facing this Yankees lineup is a massive step up in class.

The Guardians are now 0-2 in Bibee’s two career starts when facing the Pinstripers.

In 30 plate appearances, this current Yankees roster is hitting .407 against Bibee with a .467 wOBA and an 18.7-degree launch angle.

Like Rodón, Bibee also leans heavily on his slider, as it has the second-highest usage in his arsenal at 27.8%. The slider also gives Bibee his highest strikeout rate at 34.4%. 

He saves an average of 13.8 runs when featuring the pitch, but the problem is the Yankees have the fourth-highest run production (+9.0 runs above average) in the league when facing the slider.

Although Bibee only threw 39 pitches in Game 2 and didn’t pitch deeper than the second inning, he was in high-leveraged moments right from the start.

With Torres, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge at the top of the Yankees order, Bibee could be on the precipice of another tough outing.

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Yankees vs. Guardians pick

No one would deny that Bibee’s had an exceptional year and has been the Guardian’s best pitcher by a wide margin.

In his first two seasons with Cleveland, he’s 22-12 with a 3.25 ERA.

The reality is the Guardians are almost out of options at this point, which is why they’re bringing Bibee back on short rest.

Unfortunately, he faces a Yankees lineup with simply too much quality.

Moreover, Rodón is a handful against Cleveland, and his teams are on a 5-0 run when he starts against the Guardians.

Since it’s not often you can get the Yankees as a short favorite of -120 or better, this opportunity is too good to pass up at the current price.

Best bet: Yankees ML (-118, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.