Yankees vs. Guardians prediction: ALCS Game 1 odds, picks, best bets

Monday night’s ALCS will be the seventh meeting in the playoffs between the Yankees and Guardians, with the Bombers holding a 4-2 edge, including three straight wins.

Carlos Rodón will start for the home side, while Cleveland counters with Alex Cobb.

Neither pitcher was at their best in the divisional round, as both failed to make it through four innings.

One explanation for their struggles could be a lack of postseason experience despite having a combined 22 years in the big leagues.

We’ll delve deeper into that theory and examine why one team looks poised to have a fast start in the series opener.

Guardians vs. Yankees odds

Guardians outlook

It took 11 years for Cobb to return to the postseason after getting his taste in 2013 with the Tampa Bay Rays. 

The fact that he’s even getting the start is somewhat impressive, considering he made only three appearances this entire season due to a hip impingement, shoulder injury and a blister on his throwing hand.

His start against the Tigers in the ALDS was his first appearance in over a month. 

Pitching Cobb in this spot is a massive gamble by Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. It’s worth noting that he went right from the injury list to the postseason without even making a rehab appearance.

While Vogt factored Cobb’s 13-year career into his decision-making, his right-hander will have to navigate a Yankees roster that’s put up some pretty solid numbers against him.

Yankees outlook

After suffering losses in each of his two playoff starts, Rodón will try to secure a victory in his third attempt.

In 2020, he pitched out of the bullpen with the White Sox, facing three batters while allowing two runs without recording an out. 

The following postseason, he went 2 ⅔ innings with a 6.75 ERA after allowing two runs on three hits. A week ago against the Royals, he allowed four runs on seven hits in 3 ⅔ innings. 

While his postseason sample size of three appearances, two starts and 6 ⅓ innings is still relatively small, it’s difficult to look past his 11.37 ERA.

The Guardians are coming off an impressive Game 5, where they racked up five runs in six innings against Tarik Skuba, the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award.

Cleveland hitters also won’t have to make too many adjustments in their approach at the plate, considering that Skubal and Rodón are left-handed throwers.

Guardians vs. Yankees pick

Managers in the playoffs tend to have a quicker hook if their starting pitchers get into trouble. Moreover, teams that make it this far are likelier to have quality relievers who can come into a game and get the job done.

As a result, when targeting the over in a playoff game, the first five innings are well worth a look because even if the starting pitcher is struggling, the manager is unlikely to pull him unless he’s already given up some runs.

In 83 plate appearances against Cobb, this Yankees roster is hitting .288 with .405 wOBA and a .526 xSLG. 

Cobb must also be careful with wind gusts of at least 10 mph blowing out to right field. According to the Action Network, the over is 25-15 (62.5%) in the first five innings of playoff games with double-digit wind speeds.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Our total for the first five innings is four, with DraftKings listing the Yankees’ team total at 2.5 (+115). Yet, given that number at a plus price, one has to wonder if the weather is fully accounted for.

The Yankees had the second-highest wRC+ value (117) during the regular season while hitting the most home runs. If they’re successful in getting some hitters on base, their lineup has the power to drive in multiple runs in the early frames.

Best bet: Yankees F5 team total over 2.5 (+115, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.