Yankees vs. Guardians prediction: ALCS Game 3 pick, odds, best bets

A big reason why the public is like bees on honey for the Yankees is that the Guardians were one of the game’s weakest contact hitting teams this season in contrast to a Yankees club that topped MLB in everything from expected slug percentage to barrel rate on Statcast. 

We saw this disparity on Tuesday in Game 2.

Cleveland failed to strike a scoring momentum despite having loaded the bases in the fourth and fifth innings. 

But maybe if it weren’t for the two fielding errors that cost the Guardians runs, their window of opportunity could have been seized differently.

That was an uncharacteristic defect in Cleveland’s game; it finished fourth overall in Fielding Run Value in runs above average according to FanGraphs. 

Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 odds

The Guardians will start Matthew Boyd, whose late-season entry into their rotation was relatively seamless after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Boyd has been perfect in the limited action he had in his two divisional series starts, striking out five apiece and allowing 0 earned runs in 6²/₃ innings. 

From a technical perspective, we have to like the execution of Boyd’s pitch mix since returning: His velocity is up across four of his five pitches, while his slider and curveball are putting away hitters at a higher rate than 2023.

He’s especially effective against left-handed hitters, limiting them to a .143 average. 

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As key Yankees lefty batters such as Juan Soto draw this challenge, Clarke Schmidt starts for the pinstripes with more than a week of rest. 

Schmidt has conversely struggled with left-handed hitting, yielding a .238/.326/.363 slash line to them — spelling trouble for a lineup that started eight guys that can hit lefty Tuesday. 

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The Guardians haven’t led in this series yet, though they can hang with the Yankees via a relief staff that calculated an MLB-best 2.57 EAR in the regular season. 

If extra base hits can be mitigated, expect Cleveland to stiffen up and consider the value books are still offering with a difficult road win on tap for the Yankees. 

THE PLAY: Guardians (+100, Caesars Sportsbook)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.