Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Tuesday

The Baltimore Orioles are limping into the playoffs, losing 10 of their last 14 games and five straight series after Detroit took two of three over the weekend.

If not for a four-game lead in the AL wild card, the Orioles would be in danger of missing the postseason entirely.

Baltimore will finish the regular season on the road, beginning Tuesday night to kick off a three-game set in the Bronx. Dean Kremer will start for the visitors, with the Yankees countering with Clarke Schmidt.

While Baltimore has won each of the right-hander’s last three starts against New York, don’t expect Orioles manager Brandon Hyde to give Kremer too much of a leash if he struggles. 

Orioles vs. Yankees odds

Orioles outlook: ‘Just trying to get there’

It’s been quite the skid for the Orioles. Although they lead the season series, 6-4, they look like a very different team compared to when the two clubs last met in mid-July.

Kremer got the start in the July 14 series finale but lasted only 4 ⅔ innings after allowing two earned runs on four hits and two walks. It was the second time in his last three starts against the Yankees that he failed to make it through the fifth inning.

The Orioles’ four-game lead in the wild-card race almost guarantees they will be in the playoffs. However, they still need to pick up some victories on the road to secure a spot.

Given how poorly the Orioles have played down the stretch, you get the sense that trepidation has set in, with odds rising that Hyde will be extremely conservative if Baltimore jumps out to an early lead.

Yankees outlook: Advantageous matchup for Schmidt 

After already clinching a playoff spot, the Yankees still have unfinished business, considering they’re still competing for homefield advantage in the American League and throughout the playoffs. There’s no reason to suspect they will take this game lightly.

The Yankees come into this game on a three-game winning streak, with 12 victories in their last 16 contests.

Schmidt has pitched at least five innings in his last three outings against the Orioles, limiting them to three or fewer runs.

His pitch arsenal does lend itself to success when facing Baltimore. After all, he throws a sinker 21.3% of the time, and the Orioles score 17 runs below average against the pitch.

The Orioles are also below average against the slider (-0.8) and knuckle-curveball (-0.9) – pitches Schmidt combines to throw nearly 40% of the time. Moreover, Schmidt’s First Pitch Strike Rate of 63.1% should put him in the advantageous position of pitching ahead in the count.

Orioles vs. Yankees pick

I’d be particularly concerned about Kremer’s ability to pitch effectively on Tuesday. He doesn’t have a pitch in his arsenal that points to a below-average run value for the Yankees.

Moreover, if we use the Stuff+ metric, which measures the deceptiveness of his pitches, his value of 87 is the lowest of his five-year career.

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For someone who throws a sinker and splitter 33% of the time, Kremer should be more of a ground-ball pitcher. However, his ground ball-fly ball ratio of 1.0 would suggest he hasn’t been as successful.

In 135 plate appearances, this Yankees roster is hitting .273 against Kremer, with a .367 wOBA and .488 xSLG. They’re just the kind of team that can cause Kremer all sorts of problems.

Best bet: Dean Kremer under 14.5 outs or better (-115, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.